Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change
International audience Understanding the mechanism governing the ongoing global warming is a major challenge facing our society and its sustainable growth. Together with the CO 2 -forced warming, the concurrent polar sea ice loss might also have contributed to the observed Arctic warming amplificati...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2018
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/file/Ogawa_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftepunivpsaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Ogawa, Fumiaki Keenlyside, Noel Gao, Yongqi Koenigk, Torben Yang, Shuting Suo, Lingling Wang, Tao Gastineau, Guillaume Nakamura, Tetsu Cheung, Ho, Nam Omrani, Nour-Eddine Ukita, Jinro Semenov, Vladimir, V. Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Understanding the mechanism governing the ongoing global warming is a major challenge facing our society and its sustainable growth. Together with the CO 2 -forced warming, the concurrent polar sea ice loss might also have contributed to the observed Arctic warming amplification and also to the cooling trends over Eurasia through a dynamical teleconnection. However, previous individual modeling studies suggest widely different findings on the role of sea ice loss in Northern Hemisphere climate change. To help resolve this controversy, we used satellite-derived sea ice and sea-surface temperature to run coordinated hindcast experiments with five different atmospheric general circulation models. The multimodel ensemble-mean results presented in the paper reduce biases of each model and eliminate atmospheric internal unforced variability, and thus provide the best estimate to date of the signal of the polar sea ice loss. The results suggest that the impact of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic surface temperature changes, but the temperature trends elsewhere seem rather due to either sea-surface temperature changes or atmospheric internal variability. They give clear guidance on how to provide society with more accurate climate change attributions. Our work is of interest to stakeholders of countries in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. |
author2 |
Geophysical Institute Bergen (GFI / BiU) University of Bergen (UiB) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Hokkaido University Sapporo, Japan Niigata University A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) NordForsk GREENICE project (Project 61841) European Project: 648982,H2020,ERC-2014-CoG,STERCP(2015) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ogawa, Fumiaki Keenlyside, Noel Gao, Yongqi Koenigk, Torben Yang, Shuting Suo, Lingling Wang, Tao Gastineau, Guillaume Nakamura, Tetsu Cheung, Ho, Nam Omrani, Nour-Eddine Ukita, Jinro Semenov, Vladimir, V. |
author_facet |
Ogawa, Fumiaki Keenlyside, Noel Gao, Yongqi Koenigk, Torben Yang, Shuting Suo, Lingling Wang, Tao Gastineau, Guillaume Nakamura, Tetsu Cheung, Ho, Nam Omrani, Nour-Eddine Ukita, Jinro Semenov, Vladimir, V. |
author_sort |
Ogawa, Fumiaki |
title |
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change |
title_short |
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change |
title_full |
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change |
title_sort |
evaluating impacts of recent arctic sea ice loss on the northern hemisphere winter climate change |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/file/Ogawa_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (7), pp.3255-3263. ⟨10.1002/2017GL076502⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL076502 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//648982/EU/Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions/STERCP hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/file/Ogawa_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf doi:10.1002/2017GL076502 WOS: 000435743400044 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3255 |
op_container_end_page |
3263 |
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1802640545499054080 |
spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01830133v1 2024-06-23T07:49:52+00:00 Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change Ogawa, Fumiaki Keenlyside, Noel Gao, Yongqi Koenigk, Torben Yang, Shuting Suo, Lingling Wang, Tao Gastineau, Guillaume Nakamura, Tetsu Cheung, Ho, Nam Omrani, Nour-Eddine Ukita, Jinro Semenov, Vladimir, V. Geophysical Institute Bergen (GFI / BiU) University of Bergen (UiB) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Hokkaido University Sapporo, Japan Niigata University A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) NordForsk GREENICE project (Project 61841) European Project: 648982,H2020,ERC-2014-CoG,STERCP(2015) 2018 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/file/Ogawa_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/2017GL076502 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//648982/EU/Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions/STERCP hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133/file/Ogawa_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf doi:10.1002/2017GL076502 WOS: 000435743400044 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01830133 Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (7), pp.3255-3263. ⟨10.1002/2017GL076502⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502 2024-06-03T23:57:07Z International audience Understanding the mechanism governing the ongoing global warming is a major challenge facing our society and its sustainable growth. Together with the CO 2 -forced warming, the concurrent polar sea ice loss might also have contributed to the observed Arctic warming amplification and also to the cooling trends over Eurasia through a dynamical teleconnection. However, previous individual modeling studies suggest widely different findings on the role of sea ice loss in Northern Hemisphere climate change. To help resolve this controversy, we used satellite-derived sea ice and sea-surface temperature to run coordinated hindcast experiments with five different atmospheric general circulation models. The multimodel ensemble-mean results presented in the paper reduce biases of each model and eliminate atmospheric internal unforced variability, and thus provide the best estimate to date of the signal of the polar sea ice loss. The results suggest that the impact of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic surface temperature changes, but the temperature trends elsewhere seem rather due to either sea-surface temperature changes or atmospheric internal variability. They give clear guidance on how to provide society with more accurate climate change attributions. Our work is of interest to stakeholders of countries in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 45 7 3255 3263 |