A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina)
International audience During the 1970s, Laguna Mar Chiquita (Argentina) experienced a dramatic hydroclimatic anom- aly, with a substantial rise in its level. Precipitations are the dominant driving factor in lake level uctuations. The present study investigates the potential role of remote forc- in...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2016
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/document https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/file/A%20complete%20hydro-climate%20model%20chain%20to%20investigate%20the%20in%20uence%20of%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20on%20recent%20hydroclimatic%20variability%20in%20subtropical%20South%20America%20%28Laguna%20Mar%20Chiquita,%20Argentina%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 |
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Open Polar |
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École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
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ftepunivpsaclay |
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English |
topic |
LMDz Statistical downscaling Hydrological modeling Lake level variability Southeastern South America [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
LMDz Statistical downscaling Hydrological modeling Lake level variability Southeastern South America [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Troin, Magali Vrac, Mathieu Khodri, Myriam Daniel, Caya Vallet-Coulomb, Christine Piovano, Eduardo L. Sylvestre, Florence A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) |
topic_facet |
LMDz Statistical downscaling Hydrological modeling Lake level variability Southeastern South America [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience During the 1970s, Laguna Mar Chiquita (Argentina) experienced a dramatic hydroclimatic anom- aly, with a substantial rise in its level. Precipitations are the dominant driving factor in lake level uctuations. The present study investigates the potential role of remote forc- ing through global sea surface temperature (SST) elds in modulating recent hydroclimatic variability in Southeast- ern South America and especially over the Laguna Mar Chiquita region. Daily precipitation and temperature are extracted from a multi-member LMDz atmospheric gen- eral circulation model (AGCM) ensemble of simulations forced by HadISST1 observed time-varying global SST and sea-ice boundary conditions from 1950 to 2005. The various members of the ensemble are only different in their atmospheric initial conditions. Statistical downscaling (SD) is used to adjust precipitation and temperature from LMDz ensemble mean at the station scale over the basin. A coupled basin-lake hydrological model (cpHM) is then using the LMDz-downscaled (LMDz-SD) climate variables as input to simulate the lake behavior. The results indicate that the long-term lake level trend is fairly well depicted by the LMDz-SD-cpHM simulations. The 1970s level rise and high-level conditions are generally well captured in timing and in magnitude when SST-forced AGCM-SD variables are used to drive the cpHM. As the LMDz simulations are forced solely with the observed sea surface conditions, the global SST seems to have an in uence on the lake level variations of Laguna Mar Chiquita. As well, this study shows that the AGCM-SD-cpHM model chain is a useful approach for evaluating long-term lake level uctuations in response to the projected climate changes. |
author2 |
Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Centro de Investigaciónes en Ciencias de la Tierra (CICTERRA) CNRS-INSU (PNEDC and LEFE-EVE programs, AMANCAY project)ECOS-Sud-MINCYT (PA08U02, France–Argentina cooperation)PIP 112-200801-00808 (CONICET) ANR-06-VULN-0010,ESCARSEL,Evolution Séculaire du Climat dans les régions circum-Atlantiques et Réponse de Systèmes Eco-Lacustres(2006) ANR-12-JS06-0005,StaRMIP,Intercomparaisons de modèles statistiques de régionalisation et impacts hydrologiques(2012) European Project: 212492,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2007-1,CLARIS LPB(2008) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Troin, Magali Vrac, Mathieu Khodri, Myriam Daniel, Caya Vallet-Coulomb, Christine Piovano, Eduardo L. Sylvestre, Florence |
author_facet |
Troin, Magali Vrac, Mathieu Khodri, Myriam Daniel, Caya Vallet-Coulomb, Christine Piovano, Eduardo L. Sylvestre, Florence |
author_sort |
Troin, Magali |
title |
A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) |
title_short |
A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) |
title_full |
A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) |
title_fullStr |
A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) |
title_full_unstemmed |
A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) |
title_sort |
complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical south america (laguna mar chiquita, argentina) |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/document https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/file/A%20complete%20hydro-climate%20model%20chain%20to%20investigate%20the%20in%20uence%20of%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20on%20recent%20hydroclimatic%20variability%20in%20subtropical%20South%20America%20%28Laguna%20Mar%20Chiquita,%20Argentina%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(132.394,132.394,68.420,68.420) |
geographic |
Aly Argentina |
geographic_facet |
Aly Argentina |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 Climate Dynamics, 2016, 46 (5), pp.1783-1798. ⟨10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/212492/EU/A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin/CLARIS LPB hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/document https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/file/A%20complete%20hydro-climate%20model%20chain%20to%20investigate%20the%20in%20uence%20of%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20on%20recent%20hydroclimatic%20variability%20in%20subtropical%20South%20America%20%28Laguna%20Mar%20Chiquita,%20Argentina%29.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 IRD: fdi:010066233 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
1783 |
op_container_end_page |
1798 |
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spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01475454v1 2024-06-09T07:49:31+00:00 A complete hydro‐climate model chain to investigate the in uence of sea surface temperature on recent hydroclimatic variabilityin subtropical South America (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) Troin, Magali Vrac, Mathieu Khodri, Myriam Daniel, Caya Vallet-Coulomb, Christine Piovano, Eduardo L. Sylvestre, Florence Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Centro de Investigaciónes en Ciencias de la Tierra (CICTERRA) CNRS-INSU (PNEDC and LEFE-EVE programs, AMANCAY project)ECOS-Sud-MINCYT (PA08U02, France–Argentina cooperation)PIP 112-200801-00808 (CONICET) ANR-06-VULN-0010,ESCARSEL,Evolution Séculaire du Climat dans les régions circum-Atlantiques et Réponse de Systèmes Eco-Lacustres(2006) ANR-12-JS06-0005,StaRMIP,Intercomparaisons de modèles statistiques de régionalisation et impacts hydrologiques(2012) European Project: 212492,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2007-1,CLARIS LPB(2008) 2016-03 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/document https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/file/A%20complete%20hydro-climate%20model%20chain%20to%20investigate%20the%20in%20uence%20of%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20on%20recent%20hydroclimatic%20variability%20in%20subtropical%20South%20America%20%28Laguna%20Mar%20Chiquita,%20Argentina%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/212492/EU/A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin/CLARIS LPB hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/document https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454/file/A%20complete%20hydro-climate%20model%20chain%20to%20investigate%20the%20in%20uence%20of%20sea%20surface%20temperature%20on%20recent%20hydroclimatic%20variability%20in%20subtropical%20South%20America%20%28Laguna%20Mar%20Chiquita,%20Argentina%29.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 IRD: fdi:010066233 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://amu.hal.science/hal-01475454 Climate Dynamics, 2016, 46 (5), pp.1783-1798. ⟨10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0⟩ LMDz Statistical downscaling Hydrological modeling Lake level variability Southeastern South America [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2676-0 2024-05-16T12:27:14Z International audience During the 1970s, Laguna Mar Chiquita (Argentina) experienced a dramatic hydroclimatic anom- aly, with a substantial rise in its level. Precipitations are the dominant driving factor in lake level uctuations. The present study investigates the potential role of remote forc- ing through global sea surface temperature (SST) elds in modulating recent hydroclimatic variability in Southeast- ern South America and especially over the Laguna Mar Chiquita region. Daily precipitation and temperature are extracted from a multi-member LMDz atmospheric gen- eral circulation model (AGCM) ensemble of simulations forced by HadISST1 observed time-varying global SST and sea-ice boundary conditions from 1950 to 2005. The various members of the ensemble are only different in their atmospheric initial conditions. Statistical downscaling (SD) is used to adjust precipitation and temperature from LMDz ensemble mean at the station scale over the basin. A coupled basin-lake hydrological model (cpHM) is then using the LMDz-downscaled (LMDz-SD) climate variables as input to simulate the lake behavior. The results indicate that the long-term lake level trend is fairly well depicted by the LMDz-SD-cpHM simulations. The 1970s level rise and high-level conditions are generally well captured in timing and in magnitude when SST-forced AGCM-SD variables are used to drive the cpHM. As the LMDz simulations are forced solely with the observed sea surface conditions, the global SST seems to have an in uence on the lake level variations of Laguna Mar Chiquita. As well, this study shows that the AGCM-SD-cpHM model chain is a useful approach for evaluating long-term lake level uctuations in response to the projected climate changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Aly ENVELOPE(132.394,132.394,68.420,68.420) Argentina Climate Dynamics 46 5-6 1783 1798 |