The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes
International audience With an increasing political focus on limiting global warming to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels it is vital to understand the consequences of these targets on key parts of the climate system. Here, we focus on changes in sea level and sea ice, comparing twenty-firs...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163/document https://hal.science/hal-01105163/file/s00382-012-1612-9.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 |
id |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01105163v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftepunivpsaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Körper, J. Höschel, I. Lowe, J.A. Hewitt, C.D. Salas y Melia, D. Roeckner, E. Huebener, H. Royer, J.-F. Dufresne, J.-L. Pardaens, A. Giorgetta, M.A. Sanderson, M.G. Otterå, O.H. Tjiputra, J. Denvil, S. The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience With an increasing political focus on limiting global warming to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels it is vital to understand the consequences of these targets on key parts of the climate system. Here, we focus on changes in sea level and sea ice, comparing twenty-first century projections with increased greenhouse gas concentrations (using the mid-range IPCC A1B emissions scenario) with those under a mitigation scenario with large reductions in emissions (the E1 scenario). At the end of the twenty-first century, the global mean steric sea level rise is reduced by about a third in the mitigation scenario compared with the A1B scenario. Changes in surface air temperature are found to be poorly correlated with steric sea level changes. While the projected decreases in sea ice extent during the first half of the twenty-first century are independent of the season or scenario, especially in the Arctic, the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent is amplified. By the end of the century the Arctic becomes sea ice free in September in the A1B scenario in most models. In the mitigation scenario the ice does not disappear in the majority of models, but is reduced by 42 % of the present September extent. Results for Antarctic sea ice changes reveal large initial biases in the models and a significant correlation between projected changes and the initial extent. This latter result highlights the necessity for further refinements in Antarctic sea ice modelling for more reliable projections of future sea ice. © 2012 The Author(s). |
author2 |
Institut für Meteorologie Berlin Freie Universität Berlin Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology, Rheingaustraße 186, 65203 Wiesbaden, Germany Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Geophysical Institute Bergen (GFI / BiU) University of Bergen (UiB) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Körper, J. Höschel, I. Lowe, J.A. Hewitt, C.D. Salas y Melia, D. Roeckner, E. Huebener, H. Royer, J.-F. Dufresne, J.-L. Pardaens, A. Giorgetta, M.A. Sanderson, M.G. Otterå, O.H. Tjiputra, J. Denvil, S. |
author_facet |
Körper, J. Höschel, I. Lowe, J.A. Hewitt, C.D. Salas y Melia, D. Roeckner, E. Huebener, H. Royer, J.-F. Dufresne, J.-L. Pardaens, A. Giorgetta, M.A. Sanderson, M.G. Otterå, O.H. Tjiputra, J. Denvil, S. |
author_sort |
Körper, J. |
title |
The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
title_short |
The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
title_full |
The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
title_fullStr |
The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
title_sort |
effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163/document https://hal.science/hal-01105163/file/s00382-012-1612-9.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01105163 Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40 (3-4), pp.531-550. ⟨10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163/document https://hal.science/hal-01105163/file/s00382-012-1612-9.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
531 |
op_container_end_page |
550 |
_version_ |
1801384014992375808 |
spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-01105163v1 2024-06-09T07:40:39+00:00 The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes Körper, J. Höschel, I. Lowe, J.A. Hewitt, C.D. Salas y Melia, D. Roeckner, E. Huebener, H. Royer, J.-F. Dufresne, J.-L. Pardaens, A. Giorgetta, M.A. Sanderson, M.G. Otterå, O.H. Tjiputra, J. Denvil, S. Institut für Meteorologie Berlin Freie Universität Berlin Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology, Rheingaustraße 186, 65203 Wiesbaden, Germany Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Geophysical Institute Bergen (GFI / BiU) University of Bergen (UiB) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2013 https://hal.science/hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163/document https://hal.science/hal-01105163/file/s00382-012-1612-9.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163 https://hal.science/hal-01105163/document https://hal.science/hal-01105163/file/s00382-012-1612-9.pdf doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01105163 Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40 (3-4), pp.531-550. ⟨10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9 2024-05-16T11:54:18Z International audience With an increasing political focus on limiting global warming to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels it is vital to understand the consequences of these targets on key parts of the climate system. Here, we focus on changes in sea level and sea ice, comparing twenty-first century projections with increased greenhouse gas concentrations (using the mid-range IPCC A1B emissions scenario) with those under a mitigation scenario with large reductions in emissions (the E1 scenario). At the end of the twenty-first century, the global mean steric sea level rise is reduced by about a third in the mitigation scenario compared with the A1B scenario. Changes in surface air temperature are found to be poorly correlated with steric sea level changes. While the projected decreases in sea ice extent during the first half of the twenty-first century are independent of the season or scenario, especially in the Arctic, the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent is amplified. By the end of the century the Arctic becomes sea ice free in September in the A1B scenario in most models. In the mitigation scenario the ice does not disappear in the majority of models, but is reduced by 42 % of the present September extent. Results for Antarctic sea ice changes reveal large initial biases in the models and a significant correlation between projected changes and the initial extent. This latter result highlights the necessity for further refinements in Antarctic sea ice modelling for more reliable projections of future sea ice. © 2012 The Author(s). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Sea ice École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Antarctic Arctic Climate Dynamics 40 3-4 531 550 |