Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model
International audience The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towar...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00833022 https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 |
id |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-00833022v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftepunivpsaclay |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic oscillation Mount Agung Volcanic eruptions Predictability Hindcast Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Ocean dynamics Decadal climate prediction [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic oscillation Mount Agung Volcanic eruptions Predictability Hindcast Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Ocean dynamics Decadal climate prediction [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Swingedouw, Didier Mignot, Juliette Labetoulle, Sonia Guilyardi, Éric Madec, Gurvan Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic oscillation Mount Agung Volcanic eruptions Predictability Hindcast Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Ocean dynamics Decadal climate prediction [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960-2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions ... |
author2 |
Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Variabilité climatique tropicale et globale (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Ingéneurie et calcul scientifique (INCAS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Swingedouw, Didier Mignot, Juliette Labetoulle, Sonia Guilyardi, Éric Madec, Gurvan |
author_facet |
Swingedouw, Didier Mignot, Juliette Labetoulle, Sonia Guilyardi, Éric Madec, Gurvan |
author_sort |
Swingedouw, Didier |
title |
Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model |
title_short |
Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model |
title_full |
Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model |
title_fullStr |
Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model |
title_sort |
initialisation and predictability of the amoc over the last 50 years in a climate model |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00833022 https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
East Greenland east greenland current Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
East Greenland east greenland current Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-00833022 Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40, pp.2381-2399. ⟨10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 hal-00833022 https://hal.science/hal-00833022 BIBCODE: 2013ClDy.40.2381S doi:10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 IRD: fdi:010060870 WOS: WOS:000318278700014 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
2381 |
op_container_end_page |
2399 |
_version_ |
1801375142698287104 |
spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-00833022v1 2024-06-09T07:45:40+00:00 Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model Swingedouw, Didier Mignot, Juliette Labetoulle, Sonia Guilyardi, Éric Madec, Gurvan Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Variabilité climatique tropicale et globale (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Ingéneurie et calcul scientifique (INCAS) 2013-05 https://hal.science/hal-00833022 https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 hal-00833022 https://hal.science/hal-00833022 BIBCODE: 2013ClDy.40.2381S doi:10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 IRD: fdi:010060870 WOS: WOS:000318278700014 ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-00833022 Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40, pp.2381-2399. ⟨10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8⟩ North Atlantic oscillation Mount Agung Volcanic eruptions Predictability Hindcast Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Ocean dynamics Decadal climate prediction [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-012-1516-8 2024-05-16T11:30:12Z International audience The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960-2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions ... Article in Journal/Newspaper East Greenland east greenland current Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Greenland Climate Dynamics 40 9-10 2381 2399 |