Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation
International audience Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a useful tool to describe the statistical properties of extreme events. Its underlying assumptions include some form of temporal stationarity in the data. Previous studies have been able to treat long-term trends in datasets, to obtain the time de...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2008
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119/document https://hal.science/hal-00331119/file/npg-15-365-2008.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 |
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École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL |
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English |
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[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
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[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Yiou, Pascal Goubanova, K. Li, Z. X. Nogaj, M. Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a useful tool to describe the statistical properties of extreme events. Its underlying assumptions include some form of temporal stationarity in the data. Previous studies have been able to treat long-term trends in datasets, to obtain the time dependence of EVT parameters in a parametric form. Since there is also a dependence of surface temperature and precipitation to weather patterns obtained from pressure data, we determine the EVT parameters of those meteorological variables over France conditional to the occurrence of North Atlantic weather patterns in the summer. We use a clustering algorithm on geopotential height data over the North Atlantic to obtain those patterns. This approach refines the straightforward application of EVT on climate data by allowing us to assess the role of atmospheric variability on temperature and precipitation extreme parameters. This study also investigates the statistical robustness of this relation. Our results show how weather regimes can modulate the different behavior of mean climate variables and their extremes. Such a modulation can be very different for the mean and extreme precipitation. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Mécanique des Fluides, Energies et Environnement (EDF R&D MFEE) EDF R&D (EDF R&D) EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yiou, Pascal Goubanova, K. Li, Z. X. Nogaj, M. |
author_facet |
Yiou, Pascal Goubanova, K. Li, Z. X. Nogaj, M. |
author_sort |
Yiou, Pascal |
title |
Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
title_short |
Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
title_full |
Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
title_fullStr |
Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
title_sort |
weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119/document https://hal.science/hal-00331119/file/npg-15-365-2008.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1023-5809 EISSN: 1607-7946 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics https://hal.science/hal-00331119 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2008, 15 (3), pp.365-378. ⟨10.5194/npg-15-365-2008⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119/document https://hal.science/hal-00331119/file/npg-15-365-2008.pdf doi:10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
365 |
op_container_end_page |
378 |
_version_ |
1801379686040731648 |
spelling |
ftepunivpsaclay:oai:HAL:hal-00331119v1 2024-06-09T07:48:06+00:00 Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation Yiou, Pascal Goubanova, K. Li, Z. X. Nogaj, M. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Mécanique des Fluides, Energies et Environnement (EDF R&D MFEE) EDF R&D (EDF R&D) EDF (EDF)-EDF (EDF) 2008-05-06 https://hal.science/hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119/document https://hal.science/hal-00331119/file/npg-15-365-2008.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119 https://hal.science/hal-00331119/document https://hal.science/hal-00331119/file/npg-15-365-2008.pdf doi:10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1023-5809 EISSN: 1607-7946 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics https://hal.science/hal-00331119 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2008, 15 (3), pp.365-378. ⟨10.5194/npg-15-365-2008⟩ [PHYS.ASTR.CO]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Cosmology and Extra-Galactic Astrophysics [astro-ph.CO] [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftepunivpsaclay https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-365-2008 2024-05-16T12:10:49Z International audience Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a useful tool to describe the statistical properties of extreme events. Its underlying assumptions include some form of temporal stationarity in the data. Previous studies have been able to treat long-term trends in datasets, to obtain the time dependence of EVT parameters in a parametric form. Since there is also a dependence of surface temperature and precipitation to weather patterns obtained from pressure data, we determine the EVT parameters of those meteorological variables over France conditional to the occurrence of North Atlantic weather patterns in the summer. We use a clustering algorithm on geopotential height data over the North Atlantic to obtain those patterns. This approach refines the straightforward application of EVT on climate data by allowing us to assess the role of atmospheric variability on temperature and precipitation extreme parameters. This study also investigates the statistical robustness of this relation. Our results show how weather regimes can modulate the different behavior of mean climate variables and their extremes. Such a modulation can be very different for the mean and extreme precipitation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay: HAL Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 15 3 365 378 |