Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe
Abstract European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast dat...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/68568 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 |
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ftenea:oai:iris.enea.it:20.500.12079/68568 2024-04-21T08:07:42+00:00 Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana 2022 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/68568 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 eng eng volume:49 issue:11 firstpage:e2020GL092360 journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/68568 doi:10.1029/2020GL092360 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85132072965 energy forecasting seasonal forecasting teleconnections info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftenea https://doi.org/20.500.12079/6856810.1029/2020GL092360 2024-03-27T15:08:03Z Abstract European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast data sets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation ENEA-IRIS Open Archive (Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile) Geophysical Research Letters 49 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ENEA-IRIS Open Archive (Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile) |
op_collection_id |
ftenea |
language |
English |
topic |
energy forecasting seasonal forecasting teleconnections |
spellingShingle |
energy forecasting seasonal forecasting teleconnections Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe |
topic_facet |
energy forecasting seasonal forecasting teleconnections |
description |
Abstract European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast data sets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill. |
author2 |
Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana |
author_facet |
Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana |
author_sort |
Schuhen, Nina |
title |
Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe |
title_short |
Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe |
title_full |
Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe |
title_sort |
predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in europe |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/68568 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
volume:49 issue:11 firstpage:e2020GL092360 journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12079/68568 doi:10.1029/2020GL092360 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85132072965 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.12079/6856810.1029/2020GL092360 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1796947723430133760 |