Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distri...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
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ftempa:oai:dora:empa_26666 2023-06-18T03:38:11+02:00 Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 eng eng Copernicus Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics--Atmos. Chem. Phys.--journals:265--1680-7316--1680-7324 empa:26666 doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 scopus: 2-s2.0-85111116748 journal id: journals:265 issn: 1680-7316 e-issn: 1680-7324 ut: 000675388100007 Journal Article Text 2021 ftempa https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 2023-06-04T23:50:45Z Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0gppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change DORA Empa Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 14 11041 11052 |
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English |
description |
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0gppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
spellingShingle |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
author_facet |
Maliniemi, Ville Nesse Tyssøy, Hilde Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
author_sort |
Maliniemi, Ville |
title |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO x on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
effects of enhanced downwelling of no x on antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics--Atmos. Chem. Phys.--journals:265--1680-7316--1680-7324 empa:26666 doi:10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 scopus: 2-s2.0-85111116748 journal id: journals:265 issn: 1680-7316 e-issn: 1680-7324 ut: 000675388100007 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
11041 |
op_container_end_page |
11052 |
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1769003074797436928 |