Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes
A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investig...
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ftedgehilluniv:oai:repository.edgehill.ac.uk:9927 2023-05-15T16:52:02+02:00 Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes Blake, S Cortes, Joaquin 2017-11-05 text http://repository.edgehill.ac.uk/9927/ http://repository.edgehill.ac.uk/9927/1/Blake_Cortes2017.pdf en eng Elsevier http://repository.edgehill.ac.uk/9927/1/Blake_Cortes2017.pdf Blake, S and Cortes, Joaquin (2017) Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes. Earth Planetary Science Letters (481). pp. 246-254. ISSN 0012-821X DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040> cc_by_nc_nd_4 CC-BY-NC-ND G Geography (General) GB Physical geography Q Science (General) Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftedgehilluniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 2018-02-03T16:56:37Z A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well-known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurized magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ. The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t*) is approximately equal to τ. The distribution of t*/τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99 < t*/τ < 1.76. Therefore, if τ can be constrained during an on-going inflation period, then the cumulative distribution function of t*/τ values calibrated from other inflation periods allows the probability of a deflation event starting during a specified time interval to be estimated. The time window in which there is a specified probability of deflation starting can also be forecast, and forecasts can be updated after each new deformation measurement. The method provides stronger forecasts than one based on the distribution of repose times alone and is transferable to other types of monitoring data and/or other patterns of pre-eruptive unrest. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Edge Hill University: Edge Hill Research Archive Krafla ENVELOPE(-16.747,-16.747,65.713,65.713) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 481 246 254 |
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Edge Hill University: Edge Hill Research Archive |
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ftedgehilluniv |
language |
English |
topic |
G Geography (General) GB Physical geography Q Science (General) |
spellingShingle |
G Geography (General) GB Physical geography Q Science (General) Blake, S Cortes, Joaquin Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
topic_facet |
G Geography (General) GB Physical geography Q Science (General) |
description |
A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well-known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurized magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ. The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t*) is approximately equal to τ. The distribution of t*/τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99 < t*/τ < 1.76. Therefore, if τ can be constrained during an on-going inflation period, then the cumulative distribution function of t*/τ values calibrated from other inflation periods allows the probability of a deflation event starting during a specified time interval to be estimated. The time window in which there is a specified probability of deflation starting can also be forecast, and forecasts can be updated after each new deformation measurement. The method provides stronger forecasts than one based on the distribution of repose times alone and is transferable to other types of monitoring data and/or other patterns of pre-eruptive unrest. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Blake, S Cortes, Joaquin |
author_facet |
Blake, S Cortes, Joaquin |
author_sort |
Blake, S |
title |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_short |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_full |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_sort |
forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://repository.edgehill.ac.uk/9927/ http://repository.edgehill.ac.uk/9927/1/Blake_Cortes2017.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-16.747,-16.747,65.713,65.713) |
geographic |
Krafla |
geographic_facet |
Krafla |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
http://repository.edgehill.ac.uk/9927/1/Blake_Cortes2017.pdf Blake, S and Cortes, Joaquin (2017) Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes. Earth Planetary Science Letters (481). pp. 246-254. ISSN 0012-821X DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040> |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 |
container_title |
Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
container_volume |
481 |
container_start_page |
246 |
op_container_end_page |
254 |
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1766042162275811328 |