Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk
The increase of the share of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix raises issues related to the predictability of electricity production. Especially, at the seasonal scale, the transmission system operators (TSOs) are required to make projections of the availability of means of production...
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ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:tel-03259610v1 2024-09-15T18:24:23+00:00 Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk Prévision saisonnière de la ressource et de la production éolienne en France, et du risque associé Alonzo, Bastien Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Université Paris Saclay (COmUE) Philippe Drobinski Riwal Plougonven Peter Tankov 2018-11-16 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/document https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/file/76751_ALONZO_2018_archivage.pdf en eng HAL CCSD NNT: 2018SACLX062 tel-03259610 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/document https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/file/76751_ALONZO_2018_archivage.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610 Meteorology. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018SACLX062⟩ Wind energy Seasonal forecasts Probabilistic forecasting Risk of imbalance Énergie éolienne Prévisions Saisonnières Prévision ProbabilisteVariabilité Risque de déséquilibre [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Theses 2018 ftecoleponts 2024-08-13T23:47:27Z The increase of the share of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix raises issues related to the predictability of electricity production. Especially, at the seasonal scale, the transmission system operators (TSOs) are required to make projections of the availability of means of production as well as to predict the consumption in order to guarantee the security of energy supply during the coming winter or summer. However, current projections are mainly based on historical data (climatology) of temperatures (consumption), wind speed (wind energy production), or solar radiation (photovoltaic production). The thesis presents 4 studies: three within the framework of seasonal forecasts, and one study on the realism of the surface wind speed modelled by the Numerical Weather Prediction model of the European Center of Medium-range Weather Forecasts.If the wind energy forecasts at short timescales going from the minute to several days as well as the wind trends at climatic scale have been thoroughly studied, forecasts of wind energy at the intermadiate scale going from a fortnight to the seasonal horizon have recieved little attention. Predictability at midlatitude and at those long term horizons is indeed still an open question. However, several studies have shown that Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) are able to bring valuable information on the large scale atmospheric circulation via the forecast of large scale atmospheric oscillations such as ENSO in the Pacific region, or the NAO in the North Atlantic. It has also been demonstrated that these oscillations have a strong influence on precipitations, temperatures, and surface wind speed.Building the relation between such indicators of the large scale atmospheric circulation and the surface wind speed in France allows to take into account the interannual variability of the surface wind speed, which is not the case of climatology by construction. This is the idea developed in the three studies concerning the seasonal forecasts. In order to forecast the ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis North Atlantic École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftecoleponts |
language |
English |
topic |
Wind energy Seasonal forecasts Probabilistic forecasting Risk of imbalance Énergie éolienne Prévisions Saisonnières Prévision ProbabilisteVariabilité Risque de déséquilibre [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
Wind energy Seasonal forecasts Probabilistic forecasting Risk of imbalance Énergie éolienne Prévisions Saisonnières Prévision ProbabilisteVariabilité Risque de déséquilibre [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology Alonzo, Bastien Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk |
topic_facet |
Wind energy Seasonal forecasts Probabilistic forecasting Risk of imbalance Énergie éolienne Prévisions Saisonnières Prévision ProbabilisteVariabilité Risque de déséquilibre [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology |
description |
The increase of the share of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix raises issues related to the predictability of electricity production. Especially, at the seasonal scale, the transmission system operators (TSOs) are required to make projections of the availability of means of production as well as to predict the consumption in order to guarantee the security of energy supply during the coming winter or summer. However, current projections are mainly based on historical data (climatology) of temperatures (consumption), wind speed (wind energy production), or solar radiation (photovoltaic production). The thesis presents 4 studies: three within the framework of seasonal forecasts, and one study on the realism of the surface wind speed modelled by the Numerical Weather Prediction model of the European Center of Medium-range Weather Forecasts.If the wind energy forecasts at short timescales going from the minute to several days as well as the wind trends at climatic scale have been thoroughly studied, forecasts of wind energy at the intermadiate scale going from a fortnight to the seasonal horizon have recieved little attention. Predictability at midlatitude and at those long term horizons is indeed still an open question. However, several studies have shown that Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) are able to bring valuable information on the large scale atmospheric circulation via the forecast of large scale atmospheric oscillations such as ENSO in the Pacific region, or the NAO in the North Atlantic. It has also been demonstrated that these oscillations have a strong influence on precipitations, temperatures, and surface wind speed.Building the relation between such indicators of the large scale atmospheric circulation and the surface wind speed in France allows to take into account the interannual variability of the surface wind speed, which is not the case of climatology by construction. This is the idea developed in the three studies concerning the seasonal forecasts. In order to forecast the ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Université Paris Saclay (COmUE) Philippe Drobinski Riwal Plougonven Peter Tankov |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Alonzo, Bastien |
author_facet |
Alonzo, Bastien |
author_sort |
Alonzo, Bastien |
title |
Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk |
title_short |
Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk |
title_full |
Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk |
title_sort |
seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in france and associated risk |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/document https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/file/76751_ALONZO_2018_archivage.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610 Meteorology. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018SACLX062⟩ |
op_relation |
NNT: 2018SACLX062 tel-03259610 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610 https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/document https://pastel.hal.science/tel-03259610/file/76751_ALONZO_2018_archivage.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1810464729896845312 |