Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison
International audience In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe...
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ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:hal-04114743v1 2024-09-15T17:35:15+00:00 Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison Huneeus, N. Basart, S. Fiedler, S. Morcrette, J. -J. Benedetti, A. Mulcahy, J. Terradellas, E. Pérez García-Pando, C. Pejanovic, G. Nickovic, S. Arsenovic, P. Schulz, M. Cuevas, E. Baldasano, J. M. Pey, J. Remy, S. Cvetkovic, B. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) 2015 https://hal.science/hal-04114743 https://hal.science/hal-04114743/document https://hal.science/hal-04114743/file/acpd-15-26661-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 hal-04114743 https://hal.science/hal-04114743 https://hal.science/hal-04114743/document https://hal.science/hal-04114743/file/acpd-15-26661-2015.pdf BIBCODE: 2015ACPD.1526661H doi:10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1680-7367 EISSN: 1680-7375 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions https://hal.science/hal-04114743 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 2015, 15, pp.26661-26710. ⟨10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftecoleponts https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 2024-08-13T23:47:27Z International audience In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead-times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead-times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead-times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards Northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. Article in Journal/Newspaper Aerosol Robotic Network École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
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École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
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English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Huneeus, N. Basart, S. Fiedler, S. Morcrette, J. -J. Benedetti, A. Mulcahy, J. Terradellas, E. Pérez García-Pando, C. Pejanovic, G. Nickovic, S. Arsenovic, P. Schulz, M. Cuevas, E. Baldasano, J. M. Pey, J. Remy, S. Cvetkovic, B. Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting Western and Northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead-times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead-times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead-times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards Northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huneeus, N. Basart, S. Fiedler, S. Morcrette, J. -J. Benedetti, A. Mulcahy, J. Terradellas, E. Pérez García-Pando, C. Pejanovic, G. Nickovic, S. Arsenovic, P. Schulz, M. Cuevas, E. Baldasano, J. M. Pey, J. Remy, S. Cvetkovic, B. |
author_facet |
Huneeus, N. Basart, S. Fiedler, S. Morcrette, J. -J. Benedetti, A. Mulcahy, J. Terradellas, E. Pérez García-Pando, C. Pejanovic, G. Nickovic, S. Arsenovic, P. Schulz, M. Cuevas, E. Baldasano, J. M. Pey, J. Remy, S. Cvetkovic, B. |
author_sort |
Huneeus, N. |
title |
Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_short |
Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_full |
Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the North African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison |
title_sort |
forecasting the north african dust outbreak towards europe in april 2011: a model intercomparison |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04114743 https://hal.science/hal-04114743/document https://hal.science/hal-04114743/file/acpd-15-26661-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 |
genre |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
genre_facet |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
op_source |
ISSN: 1680-7367 EISSN: 1680-7375 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions https://hal.science/hal-04114743 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 2015, 15, pp.26661-26710. ⟨10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 hal-04114743 https://hal.science/hal-04114743 https://hal.science/hal-04114743/document https://hal.science/hal-04114743/file/acpd-15-26661-2015.pdf BIBCODE: 2015ACPD.1526661H doi:10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-26661-2015 |
_version_ |
1810447185878188032 |