Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models
International audience A probabilistic clustering technique is developed for classification of wintertime extratropical cyclone (ETC) tracks over the North Atlantic. We use a regression mixture model to describe the longitude-time and latitude-time propagation of the ETCs. A simple tracking algorith...
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ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:hal-04110181v1 2024-06-09T07:48:05+00:00 Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models Gaffney, Scott J. Robertson, Andrew W. Smyth, Padhraic Camargo, Suzana J. Ghil, Michael Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) 2007 https://hal.science/hal-04110181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z hal-04110181 https://hal.science/hal-04110181 BIBCODE: 2007ClDy.29.423G doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-04110181 Climate Dynamics, 2007, 29, pp.423-440. ⟨10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftecoleponts https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z 2024-05-16T12:32:04Z International audience A probabilistic clustering technique is developed for classification of wintertime extratropical cyclone (ETC) tracks over the North Atlantic. We use a regression mixture model to describe the longitude-time and latitude-time propagation of the ETCs. A simple tracking algorithm is applied to 6-hourly mean sea-level pressure fields to obtain the tracks from either a general circulation model (GCM) or a reanalysis data set. Quadratic curves are found to provide the best description of the data. We select a three-cluster classification for both data sets, based on a mix of objective and subjective criteria. The track orientations in each of the clusters are broadly similar for the GCM and reanalyzed data; they are characterized by predominantly south-to-north (S N), west-to-east (W E), and southwest-to-northeast (SW NE) tracking cyclones, respectively. The reanalysis cyclone tracks, however, are found to be much more tightly clustered geographically than those of the GCM. For the reanalysis data, a link is found between the occurrence of cyclones belonging to different clusters of trajectory-shape, and the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The positive phase of the NAO is associated with the SW NE oriented cluster, whose tracks are relatively straight and smooth (with cyclones that are typically faster, more intense, and of longer duration). The negative NAO phase is associated with more-erratic W E tracks, with typically weaker and slower-moving cyclones. The S N cluster is accompanied by a more transient geopotential trough over the western North Atlantic. No clear associations are found in the case of the GCM composites. The GCM is able to capture cyclone tracks of quite realistic orientation, as well as subtle associated features of cyclone intensity, speed and lifetimes. The clustering clearly highlights, though, the presence of serious systematic errors in the GCM’s simulation of ETC behavior. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL Climate Dynamics 29 4 423 440 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftecoleponts |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Gaffney, Scott J. Robertson, Andrew W. Smyth, Padhraic Camargo, Suzana J. Ghil, Michael Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience A probabilistic clustering technique is developed for classification of wintertime extratropical cyclone (ETC) tracks over the North Atlantic. We use a regression mixture model to describe the longitude-time and latitude-time propagation of the ETCs. A simple tracking algorithm is applied to 6-hourly mean sea-level pressure fields to obtain the tracks from either a general circulation model (GCM) or a reanalysis data set. Quadratic curves are found to provide the best description of the data. We select a three-cluster classification for both data sets, based on a mix of objective and subjective criteria. The track orientations in each of the clusters are broadly similar for the GCM and reanalyzed data; they are characterized by predominantly south-to-north (S N), west-to-east (W E), and southwest-to-northeast (SW NE) tracking cyclones, respectively. The reanalysis cyclone tracks, however, are found to be much more tightly clustered geographically than those of the GCM. For the reanalysis data, a link is found between the occurrence of cyclones belonging to different clusters of trajectory-shape, and the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The positive phase of the NAO is associated with the SW NE oriented cluster, whose tracks are relatively straight and smooth (with cyclones that are typically faster, more intense, and of longer duration). The negative NAO phase is associated with more-erratic W E tracks, with typically weaker and slower-moving cyclones. The S N cluster is accompanied by a more transient geopotential trough over the western North Atlantic. No clear associations are found in the case of the GCM composites. The GCM is able to capture cyclone tracks of quite realistic orientation, as well as subtle associated features of cyclone intensity, speed and lifetimes. The clustering clearly highlights, though, the presence of serious systematic errors in the GCM’s simulation of ETC behavior. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gaffney, Scott J. Robertson, Andrew W. Smyth, Padhraic Camargo, Suzana J. Ghil, Michael |
author_facet |
Gaffney, Scott J. Robertson, Andrew W. Smyth, Padhraic Camargo, Suzana J. Ghil, Michael |
author_sort |
Gaffney, Scott J. |
title |
Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
title_short |
Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
title_full |
Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
title_sort |
probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04110181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-04110181 Climate Dynamics, 2007, 29, pp.423-440. ⟨10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z hal-04110181 https://hal.science/hal-04110181 BIBCODE: 2007ClDy.29.423G doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0235-z |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
423 |
op_container_end_page |
440 |
_version_ |
1801379664396025856 |