Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
International audience Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas s...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984/document https://hal.science/hal-03722984/file/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
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École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
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English |
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas, C Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models or whether local feedback mechanisms of the surface energy budget could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) to study the physical mechanisms that would control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of supercooled liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snowmelt–albedo feedback. As liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. |
author2 |
Université de Liège Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) University of Oslo (UiO) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) This research has been supported by the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) and the Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek-Vlaanderen (FWO) (under the EOS project no. O0100718F and grant no. T.0002.16). Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S. – FNRS) under grant no. 2.5020.11, and the Tier-1 supercomputer (Zenobe) of the Fédération Wallonie Bruxelles infrastructure, funded by the Walloon Region under grant agreement no. 1117545. Christoph Kittel and Nicolas C. Jourdain have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003826 via the CRiceS (Climate Relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and Snow in the polar and global climate system) project. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas, C Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier |
author_facet |
Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas, C Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Kittel, Christoph |
title |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_short |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_full |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_fullStr |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_full_unstemmed |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_sort |
clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the antarctic ice shelves |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984/document https://hal.science/hal-03722984/file/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03722984 The Cryosphere, 2022, 16 (7), pp.2655 - 2669. ⟨10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984/document https://hal.science/hal-03722984/file/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2655 |
op_container_end_page |
2669 |
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1802638114161688576 |
spelling |
ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:hal-03722984v1 2024-06-23T07:47:53+00:00 Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas, C Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier Université de Liège Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) University of Oslo (UiO) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (CEN) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) This research has been supported by the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) and the Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek-Vlaanderen (FWO) (under the EOS project no. O0100718F and grant no. T.0002.16). Computational resources have been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S. – FNRS) under grant no. 2.5020.11, and the Tier-1 supercomputer (Zenobe) of the Fédération Wallonie Bruxelles infrastructure, funded by the Walloon Region under grant agreement no. 1117545. Christoph Kittel and Nicolas C. Jourdain have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003826 via the CRiceS (Climate Relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and Snow in the polar and global climate system) project. 2022-07-07 https://hal.science/hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984/document https://hal.science/hal-03722984/file/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984 https://hal.science/hal-03722984/document https://hal.science/hal-03722984/file/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03722984 The Cryosphere, 2022, 16 (7), pp.2655 - 2669. ⟨10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftecoleponts https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 2024-06-03T23:54:09Z International audience Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models or whether local feedback mechanisms of the surface energy budget could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) to study the physical mechanisms that would control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of supercooled liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snowmelt–albedo feedback. As liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves The Cryosphere École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Cryosphere 16 7 2655 2669 |