Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition
International audience Aim To analyse global patterns of climate during the mid-Holocene and conduct comparisons with pre-industrial and projected future climates. In particular, to assess the exposure of terrestrial biomes and ecoregions to climate-related risks during the Holocene–Anthropocene tra...
Published in: | Global Ecology and Biogeography |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00831004 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12097 |
id |
ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:hal-00831004v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:hal-00831004v1 2024-09-15T18:39:54+00:00 Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition Benito-Garzon, Marta Leadley, Paul, W. Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE) Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2013-08-31 https://hal.science/hal-00831004 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12097 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/geb.12097 hal-00831004 https://hal.science/hal-00831004 doi:10.1111/geb.12097 PRODINRA: 400565 WOS: 000329139600010 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/ ISSN: 1466-822X EISSN: 1466-822X Global Ecology and Biogeography https://hal.science/hal-00831004 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2013, 23 (2), pp.235-244. ⟨10.1111/geb.12097⟩ [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftecoleponts https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12097 2024-07-24T07:39:32Z International audience Aim To analyse global patterns of climate during the mid-Holocene and conduct comparisons with pre-industrial and projected future climates. In particular, to assess the exposure of terrestrial biomes and ecoregions to climate-related risks during the Holocene–Anthropocene transition starting at the pre-industrial period. Location Terrestrial ecosystems of the Earth. Methods We calculated long-term climate differences (anomalies) between the mid-Holocene (6 ka cal bp, mH), pre-industrial conditions and projections for 2100 (middle-strength A1B scenario) using six global circulation models available for all periods. Climate differences were synthesized with multivariate statistics and average principal component loadings of temperature and precipitation differences (an estimate of climate-related risks) were calculated on 14 biomes and 766 ecoregions. Results Our results suggest that most of the Earth's biomes will probably undergo changes beyond the mH recorded levels of community turnover and range shifts because the magnitude of climate anomalies expected in the future are greater than observed during the mH. A few biomes, like the remnants of North American and Euro-Asian prairies, may experience only slightly greater degrees of climate change in the future as compared with the mH. In addition to recent studies that have identified equatorial regions as the most sensitive to future climate change, we find that boreal forest, tundra and vegetation of the Equatorial Andes could be at greatest risk, since these regions will be exposed to future climates that are well outside natural climate variation during the Holocene. Conclusions The Holocene–Anthropocene climate transition, even for a middle-strength future climate change scenario, appears to be of greater magnitude and different from that between the mH and the pre-industrial period. As a consequence, community- and biome-level changes due to of expected climate change may be different in the future from those observed during the mH. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL Global Ecology and Biogeography 23 2 235 244 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftecoleponts |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Benito-Garzon, Marta Leadley, Paul, W. Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition |
topic_facet |
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Aim To analyse global patterns of climate during the mid-Holocene and conduct comparisons with pre-industrial and projected future climates. In particular, to assess the exposure of terrestrial biomes and ecoregions to climate-related risks during the Holocene–Anthropocene transition starting at the pre-industrial period. Location Terrestrial ecosystems of the Earth. Methods We calculated long-term climate differences (anomalies) between the mid-Holocene (6 ka cal bp, mH), pre-industrial conditions and projections for 2100 (middle-strength A1B scenario) using six global circulation models available for all periods. Climate differences were synthesized with multivariate statistics and average principal component loadings of temperature and precipitation differences (an estimate of climate-related risks) were calculated on 14 biomes and 766 ecoregions. Results Our results suggest that most of the Earth's biomes will probably undergo changes beyond the mH recorded levels of community turnover and range shifts because the magnitude of climate anomalies expected in the future are greater than observed during the mH. A few biomes, like the remnants of North American and Euro-Asian prairies, may experience only slightly greater degrees of climate change in the future as compared with the mH. In addition to recent studies that have identified equatorial regions as the most sensitive to future climate change, we find that boreal forest, tundra and vegetation of the Equatorial Andes could be at greatest risk, since these regions will be exposed to future climates that are well outside natural climate variation during the Holocene. Conclusions The Holocene–Anthropocene climate transition, even for a middle-strength future climate change scenario, appears to be of greater magnitude and different from that between the mH and the pre-industrial period. As a consequence, community- and biome-level changes due to of expected climate change may be different in the future from those observed during the mH. |
author2 |
centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE) Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benito-Garzon, Marta Leadley, Paul, W. Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F |
author_facet |
Benito-Garzon, Marta Leadley, Paul, W. Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F |
author_sort |
Benito-Garzon, Marta |
title |
Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition |
title_short |
Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition |
title_full |
Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition |
title_fullStr |
Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the Holocene - Anthropocene transition |
title_sort |
assessing global biome exposure to climate change through the holocene - anthropocene transition |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00831004 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12097 |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
ISSN: 1466-822X EISSN: 1466-822X Global Ecology and Biogeography https://hal.science/hal-00831004 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2013, 23 (2), pp.235-244. ⟨10.1111/geb.12097⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/geb.12097 hal-00831004 https://hal.science/hal-00831004 doi:10.1111/geb.12097 PRODINRA: 400565 WOS: 000329139600010 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12097 |
container_title |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
235 |
op_container_end_page |
244 |
_version_ |
1810484238196146176 |