Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models
International audience Fluctuations of the annual number of tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and of the energy dissipated by the most intense hurricane of a season are related to a variety of predictors [global temperature, SST and detrended SST, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern O...
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Online Access: | https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 |
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ftecoleponts:oai:HAL:hal-00716543v1 2024-06-09T07:48:00+00:00 Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models Mestre, Olivier Hallegatte, Stéphane Ecole Natl Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France affiliation inconnue Inst Math, Lab Stat and Probabil, Toulouse, France centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Météo-France 2009 https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 hal-00716543 https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 Journal of Climate, 2009, 22 (3), pp.633-648. ⟨10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2009 ftecoleponts https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 2024-05-16T11:48:58Z International audience Fluctuations of the annual number of tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and of the energy dissipated by the most intense hurricane of a season are related to a variety of predictors [global temperature, SST and detrended SST, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI)] using generalized additive and linearmodels. This study demonstrates that SST and SOI are predictors of interest. The SST is found to influence positively the annual number of tropical cyclones and the intensity of the most intense hurricanes. The use of specific additive models reveals nonlinearity in the responses to SOI that has to be taken into account using changepoint models. The long-term trend in SST is found to influence the annual number of tropical cyclones but does not add information for the prediction of the most intense hurricane intensity. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Journal of Climate 22 3 633 648 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
École des Ponts ParisTech: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftecoleponts |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Mestre, Olivier Hallegatte, Stéphane Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Fluctuations of the annual number of tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and of the energy dissipated by the most intense hurricane of a season are related to a variety of predictors [global temperature, SST and detrended SST, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI)] using generalized additive and linearmodels. This study demonstrates that SST and SOI are predictors of interest. The SST is found to influence positively the annual number of tropical cyclones and the intensity of the most intense hurricanes. The use of specific additive models reveals nonlinearity in the responses to SOI that has to be taken into account using changepoint models. The long-term trend in SST is found to influence the annual number of tropical cyclones but does not add information for the prediction of the most intense hurricane intensity. |
author2 |
Ecole Natl Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France affiliation inconnue Inst Math, Lab Stat and Probabil, Toulouse, France centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Météo-France |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mestre, Olivier Hallegatte, Stéphane |
author_facet |
Mestre, Olivier Hallegatte, Stéphane |
author_sort |
Mestre, Olivier |
title |
Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models |
title_short |
Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models |
title_full |
Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models |
title_fullStr |
Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictors of Tropical Cyclone Numbers and Extreme Hurricane Intensities over the North Atlantic Using Generalized Additive and Linear Models |
title_sort |
predictors of tropical cyclone numbers and extreme hurricane intensities over the north atlantic using generalized additive and linear models |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Soi |
geographic_facet |
Soi |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 Journal of Climate, 2009, 22 (3), pp.633-648. ⟨10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 hal-00716543 https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00716543 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2318.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
633 |
op_container_end_page |
648 |
_version_ |
1801379537928323072 |