Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction
International audience Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short tempora...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201/document https://hal.science/hal-03811201/file/s41467-022-32704-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
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EPHE (Ecole pratique des hautes études, Paris): HAL |
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English |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Michel, Simon Swingedouw, Didier Ortega, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette Mccarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. |
author2 |
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University Utrecht Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Department of Geography Maynooth National University of Ireland Maynooth (Maynooth University) ANR-18-MPGA-0001,ARCHANGE,Changement climatique et Arctique et circulation océanique globale(2018) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Michel, Simon Swingedouw, Didier Ortega, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette Mccarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam |
author_facet |
Michel, Simon Swingedouw, Didier Ortega, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette Mccarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam |
author_sort |
Michel, Simon |
title |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_short |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_full |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_fullStr |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_sort |
early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial atlantic multidecadal variability reconstruction |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201/document https://hal.science/hal-03811201/file/s41467-022-32704-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.science/hal-03811201 Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp.5176. ⟨10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201/document https://hal.science/hal-03811201/file/s41467-022-32704-3.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 IRD: fdi:010086059 WOS: 000849365000023 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1799484474709245952 |
spelling |
ftecolephe:oai:HAL:hal-03811201v1 2024-05-19T07:44:38+00:00 Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction Michel, Simon Swingedouw, Didier Ortega, Pablo Gastineau, Guillaume Mignot, Juliette Mccarthy, Gerard Khodri, Myriam Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University Utrecht Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC-CNS) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Department of Geography Maynooth National University of Ireland Maynooth (Maynooth University) ANR-18-MPGA-0001,ARCHANGE,Changement climatique et Arctique et circulation océanique globale(2018) 2022-12 https://hal.science/hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201/document https://hal.science/hal-03811201/file/s41467-022-32704-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201 https://hal.science/hal-03811201/document https://hal.science/hal-03811201/file/s41467-022-32704-3.pdf doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 IRD: fdi:010086059 WOS: 000849365000023 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2041-1723 EISSN: 2041-1723 Nature Communications https://hal.science/hal-03811201 Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1), pp.5176. ⟨10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftecolephe https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 2024-04-25T01:19:51Z International audience Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic EPHE (Ecole pratique des hautes études, Paris): HAL Nature Communications 13 1 |