A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France)

• Published in: Ocean Dynamics
• Main Authors: Turki, Imen, Laignel, Benoît, B., Kakeh, Nabil, Chevalier, Laetitia, Costa, Stéphane
• Other Authors: Morphodynamique Continentale et Côtière (M2C), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environmental Hydraulics Institute, IH Cantabria, Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Caen), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2015
• Subjects: Sea level forecast; Astronomical tides; Nontidal residual surges; ARMA; Sea level; pressure; [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-01550540; https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z

International audience This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability.