Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t -test analysis of regime shif...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
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fteawag:oai:dora:eawag_14010 2023-05-15T14:00:24+02:00 Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki Brown, Ross Foster, James Groisman, Pavel Hélaouët, Pierre Hsu, Huang-Hsiung Kirby, Richard Knight, Jeff Kraberg, Alexandra Li, Jianping Lo, Tzu-Ting Myheni, Ranga B. North, Ryan P. Pounds, J. Alan Sparks, Tim Stübi, René Tian, Yongjun Wiltshire, Karen H. Xiao, Dong Zhu, Zaichun 2016 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 eng eng Wiley Global Change Biology--Glob. Chang. Biol.--journals:1165--1354-1013--1365-2486 eawag:14010 journal id: journals:1165 issn: 1354-1013 e-issn: 1365-2486 ut: 000369135400017 local: 17879 scopus: 2-s2.0-84955671946 doi:10.1111/gcb.13106 uri: pmid: 26598217 climate earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing Text Journal Article 2016 fteawag https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 2023-04-09T04:46:37Z Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t -test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming DORA Eawag Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic Global Change Biology 22 2 682 703 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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DORA Eawag |
op_collection_id |
fteawag |
language |
English |
topic |
climate earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing |
spellingShingle |
climate earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki Brown, Ross Foster, James Groisman, Pavel Hélaouët, Pierre Hsu, Huang-Hsiung Kirby, Richard Knight, Jeff Kraberg, Alexandra Li, Jianping Lo, Tzu-Ting Myheni, Ranga B. North, Ryan P. Pounds, J. Alan Sparks, Tim Stübi, René Tian, Yongjun Wiltshire, Karen H. Xiao, Dong Zhu, Zaichun Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
topic_facet |
climate earth systems global change regime shift statistical analysis time series volcanic forcing |
description |
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t -test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki Brown, Ross Foster, James Groisman, Pavel Hélaouët, Pierre Hsu, Huang-Hsiung Kirby, Richard Knight, Jeff Kraberg, Alexandra Li, Jianping Lo, Tzu-Ting Myheni, Ranga B. North, Ryan P. Pounds, J. Alan Sparks, Tim Stübi, René Tian, Yongjun Wiltshire, Karen H. Xiao, Dong Zhu, Zaichun |
author_facet |
Reid, Philip C. Hari, Renata E. Beaugrand, Grégory Livingstone, David M. Marty, Christoph Straile, Dietmar Barichivich, Jonathan Goberville, Eric Adrian, Rita Aono, Yasuyuki Brown, Ross Foster, James Groisman, Pavel Hélaouët, Pierre Hsu, Huang-Hsiung Kirby, Richard Knight, Jeff Kraberg, Alexandra Li, Jianping Lo, Tzu-Ting Myheni, Ranga B. North, Ryan P. Pounds, J. Alan Sparks, Tim Stübi, René Tian, Yongjun Wiltshire, Karen H. Xiao, Dong Zhu, Zaichun |
author_sort |
Reid, Philip C. |
title |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_short |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_full |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_fullStr |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_sort |
global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
op_relation |
Global Change Biology--Glob. Chang. Biol.--journals:1165--1354-1013--1365-2486 eawag:14010 journal id: journals:1165 issn: 1354-1013 e-issn: 1365-2486 ut: 000369135400017 local: 17879 scopus: 2-s2.0-84955671946 doi:10.1111/gcb.13106 uri: pmid: 26598217 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
682 |
op_container_end_page |
703 |
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1766269494192242688 |