Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities
Following the decline in glass eel recruitment since the 70s and the implementation of the Eel Regulation in 2007, France implemented a Management Plan in 2008 aiming to reduce glass eel fishing mortality by 60%. Thus, a Scientific Council developed recruitment prediction models to support the estab...
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2021
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ftdumashal:oai:HAL:dumas-03562603v1 2023-07-30T03:56:15+02:00 Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities Développement et comparaison d'outils d’aide à l’expertise sur les opportunités de capture de civelles Benezech, Mathilde AGROCAMPUS OUEST INRAE, Unité EABX, 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Étienne Rivot Hilaire Drouineau 2021-09-15 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/document https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/file/2021_Benezech_Mathilde_SHA.pdf en eng HAL CCSD dumas-03562603 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/document https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/file/2021_Benezech_Mathilde_SHA.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603 Life Sciences [q-bio]. 2021 European eel Overexploitation Recruitment Bayesian assessment model Anguille européenne Surexploitation Recrutement Modèle d’évaluation bayésien [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis Master Thesis 2021 ftdumashal 2023-07-20T20:24:15Z Following the decline in glass eel recruitment since the 70s and the implementation of the Eel Regulation in 2007, France implemented a Management Plan in 2008 aiming to reduce glass eel fishing mortality by 60%. Thus, a Scientific Council developed recruitment prediction models to support the establishment of catch quotas. However, since 2015, the management target is no longer achieved, raising questions about models’ performance, and about assumptions on past and future recruitment trends. In this context, this study aims to address the limitations of the two current models by (1) proposing alternative models and (2) proposing new criteria to compare models’ performance. Thus, a model based on a spike and slab prior and one on a random slope were proposed to overcome too strong assumptions on recruitment trends, and they were fitted to the WGEEL abundance index from 1980 to 2019. To compare models, recruitment prediction error based on cross-validation as well as criteria quantifying conservation and fishery risks are studied. These indicators are measured in both retrospective and prospective exercises. The random slope model proves to be a good compromise, providing a limited recruitment prediction error and not favouring a single criterion among the exploitation and conservation criteria. In the future, it would be worthwhile exploring the impact of glass eel catches on escapement, which is the Regulation Management target. Suite au déclin du recrutement de civelles depuis les années 70 et à la mise en œuvre du règlement anguille en 2007, la France a établi un plan de gestion en 2008 visant à réduire de 60% la mortalité par pêche des civelles. Un Conseil scientifique a alors développé des modèles de prédiction du recrutement pour aider à l'établissement des quotas de capture. Cependant, l'objectif de gestion n'est plus atteint depuis 2015, soulevant des questions sur la performance des modèles, et leurs hypothèses sur les tendances passées et futures du recrutement. Ainsi, cette étude vise à remédier aux ... Master Thesis Anguille européenne DUMAS (Dépôt Universitaire de Mémoires Après Soutenance) Conseil ENVELOPE(-67.433,-67.433,-67.596,-67.596) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DUMAS (Dépôt Universitaire de Mémoires Après Soutenance) |
op_collection_id |
ftdumashal |
language |
English |
topic |
European eel Overexploitation Recruitment Bayesian assessment model Anguille européenne Surexploitation Recrutement Modèle d’évaluation bayésien [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
spellingShingle |
European eel Overexploitation Recruitment Bayesian assessment model Anguille européenne Surexploitation Recrutement Modèle d’évaluation bayésien [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] Benezech, Mathilde Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
topic_facet |
European eel Overexploitation Recruitment Bayesian assessment model Anguille européenne Surexploitation Recrutement Modèle d’évaluation bayésien [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
Following the decline in glass eel recruitment since the 70s and the implementation of the Eel Regulation in 2007, France implemented a Management Plan in 2008 aiming to reduce glass eel fishing mortality by 60%. Thus, a Scientific Council developed recruitment prediction models to support the establishment of catch quotas. However, since 2015, the management target is no longer achieved, raising questions about models’ performance, and about assumptions on past and future recruitment trends. In this context, this study aims to address the limitations of the two current models by (1) proposing alternative models and (2) proposing new criteria to compare models’ performance. Thus, a model based on a spike and slab prior and one on a random slope were proposed to overcome too strong assumptions on recruitment trends, and they were fitted to the WGEEL abundance index from 1980 to 2019. To compare models, recruitment prediction error based on cross-validation as well as criteria quantifying conservation and fishery risks are studied. These indicators are measured in both retrospective and prospective exercises. The random slope model proves to be a good compromise, providing a limited recruitment prediction error and not favouring a single criterion among the exploitation and conservation criteria. In the future, it would be worthwhile exploring the impact of glass eel catches on escapement, which is the Regulation Management target. Suite au déclin du recrutement de civelles depuis les années 70 et à la mise en œuvre du règlement anguille en 2007, la France a établi un plan de gestion en 2008 visant à réduire de 60% la mortalité par pêche des civelles. Un Conseil scientifique a alors développé des modèles de prédiction du recrutement pour aider à l'établissement des quotas de capture. Cependant, l'objectif de gestion n'est plus atteint depuis 2015, soulevant des questions sur la performance des modèles, et leurs hypothèses sur les tendances passées et futures du recrutement. Ainsi, cette étude vise à remédier aux ... |
author2 |
AGROCAMPUS OUEST INRAE, Unité EABX, 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Étienne Rivot Hilaire Drouineau |
format |
Master Thesis |
author |
Benezech, Mathilde |
author_facet |
Benezech, Mathilde |
author_sort |
Benezech, Mathilde |
title |
Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
title_short |
Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
title_full |
Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
title_fullStr |
Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
title_sort |
development and comparison of tools to support the assessment of glass eels catch opportunities |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/document https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/file/2021_Benezech_Mathilde_SHA.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-67.433,-67.433,-67.596,-67.596) |
geographic |
Conseil |
geographic_facet |
Conseil |
genre |
Anguille européenne |
genre_facet |
Anguille européenne |
op_source |
https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603 Life Sciences [q-bio]. 2021 |
op_relation |
dumas-03562603 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603 https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/document https://dumas.ccsd.cnrs.fr/dumas-03562603/file/2021_Benezech_Mathilde_SHA.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1772812494736195584 |