Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24229 |
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ftdukeunivdsp:oai:localhost:10161/24229 2023-11-12T04:11:43+01:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment Abbott, BW Jones, JB Schuur, EAG Chapin, FS Bowden, WB Bret-Harte, MS Epstein, HE Flannigan, MD Harms, TK Hollingsworth, TN Mack, MC McGuire, AD Natali, SM Rocha, AV Tank, SE Turetsky, MR Vonk, JE Wickland, KP Aiken, GR Alexander, HD Amon, RMW Benscoter, BW Bergeron, Y Bishop, K Blarquez, O Bond-Lamberty, B Breen, AL Buffam, I Cai, Y Carcaillet, C Carey, SK Chen, JM Chen, HYH Christensen, TR Cooper, LW Cornelissen, JHC De Groot, WJ Deluca, TH Dorrepaal, E Fetcher, N Finlay, JC Forbes, BC French, NHF Gauthier, S Girardin, MP Goetz, SJ Goldammer, JG Gough, L Grogan, P Guo, L Higuera, PE Hinzman, L Hu, FS Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Jandt, R Johnstone, JF Karlsson, J Kasischke, ES Kattner, G Kelly, R Keuper, F Kling, GW Kortelainen, P Kouki, J Kuhry, P Laudon, H Laurion, I MacDonald, RW Mann, PJ Martikainen, PJ McClelland, JW Molau, U Oberbauer, SF Olefeldt, D Paré, D Parisien, MA Payette, S Peng, C Pokrovsky, OS Rastetter, EB Raymond, PA Raynolds, MK Rein, G Reynolds, JF Robards, M Rogers, BM Schdel, C Schaefer, K Schmidt, IK Shvidenko, A Sky, J Spencer, RGM Starr, G Striegl, RG Teisserenc, R Tranvik, LJ Virtanen, T Welker, JM Zimov, S 2022-01-26T22:04:01Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24229 English eng IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 1748-9318 1748-9326 https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24229 Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY STORAGE IMPACTS RESILIENCE Journal article 2022 ftdukeunivdsp 2023-10-17T09:37:09Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Duke University Libraries: DukeSpace Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Duke University Libraries: DukeSpace |
op_collection_id |
ftdukeunivdsp |
language |
English |
topic |
Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY STORAGE IMPACTS RESILIENCE |
spellingShingle |
Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY STORAGE IMPACTS RESILIENCE Abbott, BW Jones, JB Schuur, EAG Chapin, FS Bowden, WB Bret-Harte, MS Epstein, HE Flannigan, MD Harms, TK Hollingsworth, TN Mack, MC McGuire, AD Natali, SM Rocha, AV Tank, SE Turetsky, MR Vonk, JE Wickland, KP Aiken, GR Alexander, HD Amon, RMW Benscoter, BW Bergeron, Y Bishop, K Blarquez, O Bond-Lamberty, B Breen, AL Buffam, I Cai, Y Carcaillet, C Carey, SK Chen, JM Chen, HYH Christensen, TR Cooper, LW Cornelissen, JHC De Groot, WJ Deluca, TH Dorrepaal, E Fetcher, N Finlay, JC Forbes, BC French, NHF Gauthier, S Girardin, MP Goetz, SJ Goldammer, JG Gough, L Grogan, P Guo, L Higuera, PE Hinzman, L Hu, FS Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Jandt, R Johnstone, JF Karlsson, J Kasischke, ES Kattner, G Kelly, R Keuper, F Kling, GW Kortelainen, P Kouki, J Kuhry, P Laudon, H Laurion, I MacDonald, RW Mann, PJ Martikainen, PJ McClelland, JW Molau, U Oberbauer, SF Olefeldt, D Paré, D Parisien, MA Payette, S Peng, C Pokrovsky, OS Rastetter, EB Raymond, PA Raynolds, MK Rein, G Reynolds, JF Robards, M Rogers, BM Schdel, C Schaefer, K Schmidt, IK Shvidenko, A Sky, J Spencer, RGM Starr, G Striegl, RG Teisserenc, R Tranvik, LJ Virtanen, T Welker, JM Zimov, S Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment |
topic_facet |
Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion CLIMATE-CHANGE BOREAL FOREST NITROGEN DEPOSITION ARCTIC TUNDRA FIRE SEQUESTRATION VULNERABILITY STORAGE IMPACTS RESILIENCE |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, BW Jones, JB Schuur, EAG Chapin, FS Bowden, WB Bret-Harte, MS Epstein, HE Flannigan, MD Harms, TK Hollingsworth, TN Mack, MC McGuire, AD Natali, SM Rocha, AV Tank, SE Turetsky, MR Vonk, JE Wickland, KP Aiken, GR Alexander, HD Amon, RMW Benscoter, BW Bergeron, Y Bishop, K Blarquez, O Bond-Lamberty, B Breen, AL Buffam, I Cai, Y Carcaillet, C Carey, SK Chen, JM Chen, HYH Christensen, TR Cooper, LW Cornelissen, JHC De Groot, WJ Deluca, TH Dorrepaal, E Fetcher, N Finlay, JC Forbes, BC French, NHF Gauthier, S Girardin, MP Goetz, SJ Goldammer, JG Gough, L Grogan, P Guo, L Higuera, PE Hinzman, L Hu, FS Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Jandt, R Johnstone, JF Karlsson, J Kasischke, ES Kattner, G Kelly, R Keuper, F Kling, GW Kortelainen, P Kouki, J Kuhry, P Laudon, H Laurion, I MacDonald, RW Mann, PJ Martikainen, PJ McClelland, JW Molau, U Oberbauer, SF Olefeldt, D Paré, D Parisien, MA Payette, S Peng, C Pokrovsky, OS Rastetter, EB Raymond, PA Raynolds, MK Rein, G Reynolds, JF Robards, M Rogers, BM Schdel, C Schaefer, K Schmidt, IK Shvidenko, A Sky, J Spencer, RGM Starr, G Striegl, RG Teisserenc, R Tranvik, LJ Virtanen, T Welker, JM Zimov, S |
author_facet |
Abbott, BW Jones, JB Schuur, EAG Chapin, FS Bowden, WB Bret-Harte, MS Epstein, HE Flannigan, MD Harms, TK Hollingsworth, TN Mack, MC McGuire, AD Natali, SM Rocha, AV Tank, SE Turetsky, MR Vonk, JE Wickland, KP Aiken, GR Alexander, HD Amon, RMW Benscoter, BW Bergeron, Y Bishop, K Blarquez, O Bond-Lamberty, B Breen, AL Buffam, I Cai, Y Carcaillet, C Carey, SK Chen, JM Chen, HYH Christensen, TR Cooper, LW Cornelissen, JHC De Groot, WJ Deluca, TH Dorrepaal, E Fetcher, N Finlay, JC Forbes, BC French, NHF Gauthier, S Girardin, MP Goetz, SJ Goldammer, JG Gough, L Grogan, P Guo, L Higuera, PE Hinzman, L Hu, FS Hugelius, G Jafarov, EE Jandt, R Johnstone, JF Karlsson, J Kasischke, ES Kattner, G Kelly, R Keuper, F Kling, GW Kortelainen, P Kouki, J Kuhry, P Laudon, H Laurion, I MacDonald, RW Mann, PJ Martikainen, PJ McClelland, JW Molau, U Oberbauer, SF Olefeldt, D Paré, D Parisien, MA Payette, S Peng, C Pokrovsky, OS Rastetter, EB Raymond, PA Raynolds, MK Rein, G Reynolds, JF Robards, M Rogers, BM Schdel, C Schaefer, K Schmidt, IK Shvidenko, A Sky, J Spencer, RGM Starr, G Striegl, RG Teisserenc, R Tranvik, LJ Virtanen, T Welker, JM Zimov, S |
author_sort |
Abbott, BW |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24229 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 1748-9318 1748-9326 https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24229 |
_version_ |
1782330690174451712 |