Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19
We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to mel...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/e94277e4-2d77-41dd-ba21-0b73c385db13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/319648507/1520_0442_JCLI_D_22_0386.1.pdf |
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ftdtupubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/e94277e4-2d77-41dd-ba21-0b73c385db13 2024-09-15T17:42:58+00:00 Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 Orr, Andrew Deb, Pranab Clem, Kyle R. Gilbert, Ella Bromwich, David H. Boberg, Fredrik Colwell, Steve Hansen, Nicolaj Lazzara, Matthew A. Mooney, Priscilla A. Mottram, Ruth Niwano, Masashi Phillips, Tony Pishniak, Denys Reijmer, Carleen H. Berg, Willem Jan van de Webster, Stuart Zou, Xun 2023 application/pdf https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/e94277e4-2d77-41dd-ba21-0b73c385db13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/319648507/1520_0442_JCLI_D_22_0386.1.pdf eng eng https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/e94277e4-2d77-41dd-ba21-0b73c385db13 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Orr , A , Deb , P , Clem , K R , Gilbert , E , Bromwich , D H , Boberg , F , Colwell , S , Hansen , N , Lazzara , M A , Mooney , P A , Mottram , R , Niwano , M , Phillips , T , Pishniak , D , Reijmer , C H , Berg , W J V D , Webster , S & Zou , X 2023 , ' Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 36 , no. 10 , pp. 3357 - 3383 . https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 Extreme events Antarctica Ice shelves El Nino Snowmelt/icemelt Climate models /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2023 ftdtupubl https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 2024-08-13T00:03:06Z We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23%–35%, MPI-int 1.2–2.1 K), lowest (2%–3%, <0 K) for the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10%–24% and 0.6–1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3–4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Shelves Southern Ocean Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit Journal of Climate 36 10 3357 3383 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit |
op_collection_id |
ftdtupubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Extreme events Antarctica Ice shelves El Nino Snowmelt/icemelt Climate models /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
Extreme events Antarctica Ice shelves El Nino Snowmelt/icemelt Climate models /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Orr, Andrew Deb, Pranab Clem, Kyle R. Gilbert, Ella Bromwich, David H. Boberg, Fredrik Colwell, Steve Hansen, Nicolaj Lazzara, Matthew A. Mooney, Priscilla A. Mottram, Ruth Niwano, Masashi Phillips, Tony Pishniak, Denys Reijmer, Carleen H. Berg, Willem Jan van de Webster, Stuart Zou, Xun Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
topic_facet |
Extreme events Antarctica Ice shelves El Nino Snowmelt/icemelt Climate models /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq; %) and intensity (MPI-int; K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23%–35%, MPI-int 1.2–2.1 K), lowest (2%–3%, <0 K) for the Ronne–Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10%–24% and 0.6–1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3–4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Orr, Andrew Deb, Pranab Clem, Kyle R. Gilbert, Ella Bromwich, David H. Boberg, Fredrik Colwell, Steve Hansen, Nicolaj Lazzara, Matthew A. Mooney, Priscilla A. Mottram, Ruth Niwano, Masashi Phillips, Tony Pishniak, Denys Reijmer, Carleen H. Berg, Willem Jan van de Webster, Stuart Zou, Xun |
author_facet |
Orr, Andrew Deb, Pranab Clem, Kyle R. Gilbert, Ella Bromwich, David H. Boberg, Fredrik Colwell, Steve Hansen, Nicolaj Lazzara, Matthew A. Mooney, Priscilla A. Mottram, Ruth Niwano, Masashi Phillips, Tony Pishniak, Denys Reijmer, Carleen H. Berg, Willem Jan van de Webster, Stuart Zou, Xun |
author_sort |
Orr, Andrew |
title |
Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
title_short |
Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
title_full |
Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
title_fullStr |
Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
title_sort |
characteristics of surface “melt potential” over antarctic ice shelves based on regional atmospheric model simulations of summer air temperature extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/e94277e4-2d77-41dd-ba21-0b73c385db13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/319648507/1520_0442_JCLI_D_22_0386.1.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Shelves Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Shelves Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Orr , A , Deb , P , Clem , K R , Gilbert , E , Bromwich , D H , Boberg , F , Colwell , S , Hansen , N , Lazzara , M A , Mooney , P A , Mottram , R , Niwano , M , Phillips , T , Pishniak , D , Reijmer , C H , Berg , W J V D , Webster , S & Zou , X 2023 , ' Characteristics of Surface “Melt Potential” over Antarctic Ice Shelves based on Regional Atmospheric Model Simulations of Summer Air Temperature Extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19 ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 36 , no. 10 , pp. 3357 - 3383 . https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 |
op_relation |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/e94277e4-2d77-41dd-ba21-0b73c385db13 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0386.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3357 |
op_container_end_page |
3383 |
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1810489794605613056 |