Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021
Background: Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods : We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied durin...
Published in: | International Journal of Epidemiology |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/bce417e6-2050-4322-840b-03e3c98e453d https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 |
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ftdtupubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/bce417e6-2050-4322-840b-03e3c98e453d 2024-06-23T07:54:02+00:00 Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 Kepp, Kasper P. Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M. Bæk, Kristoffer T. Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea 2022 https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/bce417e6-2050-4322-840b-03e3c98e453d https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 eng eng https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/bce417e6-2050-4322-840b-03e3c98e453d info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Kepp , K P , Björk , J , Kontis , V , Parks , R M , Bæk , K T , Emilsson , L & Lallukka , T 2022 , ' Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 ' , International Journal of Epidemiology , vol. 51 , no. 6 , pp. 1722–1732 . https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 COVID-19 excess mortality review Nordic countries register-based modelling article 2022 ftdtupubl https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 2024-06-11T15:14:22Z Background: Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods : We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications. Results: We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown. Conclusions: We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit Norway International Journal of Epidemiology 51 6 1722 1732 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit |
op_collection_id |
ftdtupubl |
language |
English |
topic |
COVID-19 excess mortality review Nordic countries register-based modelling |
spellingShingle |
COVID-19 excess mortality review Nordic countries register-based modelling Kepp, Kasper P. Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M. Bæk, Kristoffer T. Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
topic_facet |
COVID-19 excess mortality review Nordic countries register-based modelling |
description |
Background: Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods : We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications. Results: We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown. Conclusions: We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kepp, Kasper P. Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M. Bæk, Kristoffer T. Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea |
author_facet |
Kepp, Kasper P. Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M. Bæk, Kristoffer T. Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea |
author_sort |
Kepp, Kasper P. |
title |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
title_short |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
title_full |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
title_fullStr |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
title_sort |
estimates of excess mortality for the five nordic countries during the covid-19 pandemic 2020-2021 |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/bce417e6-2050-4322-840b-03e3c98e453d https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Kepp , K P , Björk , J , Kontis , V , Parks , R M , Bæk , K T , Emilsson , L & Lallukka , T 2022 , ' Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021 ' , International Journal of Epidemiology , vol. 51 , no. 6 , pp. 1722–1732 . https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 |
op_relation |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/bce417e6-2050-4322-840b-03e3c98e453d |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 |
container_title |
International Journal of Epidemiology |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1722 |
op_container_end_page |
1732 |
_version_ |
1802645962218274816 |