Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic
We report an analysis of trends in 850 hPa wind speed, as manifest in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields, over the Baltic region during the latter half of the 20th century. The results indicate that annual mean wind speeds over the Baltic significantly increased over the period 1953–99 with the majorit...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Language: | English |
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2003
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Online Access: | https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/a32ede08-4d88-4079-9d76-8d117cf1b45b https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 |
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ftdtupubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/a32ede08-4d88-4079-9d76-8d117cf1b45b 2024-04-28T08:31:00+00:00 Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic Pryor, S.C. Barthelmie, R.J. 2003 https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/a32ede08-4d88-4079-9d76-8d117cf1b45b https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 eng eng https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/a32ede08-4d88-4079-9d76-8d117cf1b45b info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Pryor , S C & Barthelmie , R J 2003 , ' Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic ' , International Journal of Climatology , vol. 23 , no. 3 , pp. 271-289 . https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 1-E vind northern Europe probability distribution extremes NAO synoptic classification article 2003 ftdtupubl https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 2024-04-03T15:02:08Z We report an analysis of trends in 850 hPa wind speed, as manifest in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields, over the Baltic region during the latter half of the 20th century. The results indicate that annual mean wind speeds over the Baltic significantly increased over the period 1953–99 with the majority of the increase being associated with increases in the upper quartile of the wind speed distribution. Accordingly, much of the change is focused on the winter season. The trends in annual and seasonal mean wind speeds are greatest in relative and absolute sense in the southwest of the Baltic basin, where they are in excess of 0.25 m s−1 per decade for the annual mean. The extremes of the wind-speed distribution also increased by up to 5 m s−1 over the study period for the wind speed with a 50 year return period, again with the largest magnitude changes in the southwestern Baltic. These changes in wind speed are strongly linked to changes in the synoptic-scale circulation. The majority of the increase in wintertime wind speeds is attributable to an increase in westerly anticyclonic, westerly cyclonic and northwesterly cyclonic circulation types as manifest in the Grosswetterlagen catalogue, which are in turn related to the recent prevalence of the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit International Journal of Climatology 23 3 271 289 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit |
op_collection_id |
ftdtupubl |
language |
English |
topic |
1-E vind northern Europe probability distribution extremes NAO synoptic classification |
spellingShingle |
1-E vind northern Europe probability distribution extremes NAO synoptic classification Pryor, S.C. Barthelmie, R.J. Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic |
topic_facet |
1-E vind northern Europe probability distribution extremes NAO synoptic classification |
description |
We report an analysis of trends in 850 hPa wind speed, as manifest in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields, over the Baltic region during the latter half of the 20th century. The results indicate that annual mean wind speeds over the Baltic significantly increased over the period 1953–99 with the majority of the increase being associated with increases in the upper quartile of the wind speed distribution. Accordingly, much of the change is focused on the winter season. The trends in annual and seasonal mean wind speeds are greatest in relative and absolute sense in the southwest of the Baltic basin, where they are in excess of 0.25 m s−1 per decade for the annual mean. The extremes of the wind-speed distribution also increased by up to 5 m s−1 over the study period for the wind speed with a 50 year return period, again with the largest magnitude changes in the southwestern Baltic. These changes in wind speed are strongly linked to changes in the synoptic-scale circulation. The majority of the increase in wintertime wind speeds is attributable to an increase in westerly anticyclonic, westerly cyclonic and northwesterly cyclonic circulation types as manifest in the Grosswetterlagen catalogue, which are in turn related to the recent prevalence of the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pryor, S.C. Barthelmie, R.J. |
author_facet |
Pryor, S.C. Barthelmie, R.J. |
author_sort |
Pryor, S.C. |
title |
Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic |
title_short |
Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic |
title_full |
Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic |
title_fullStr |
Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic |
title_sort |
long-term trends in near-surface flow over the baltic |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/a32ede08-4d88-4079-9d76-8d117cf1b45b https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Pryor , S C & Barthelmie , R J 2003 , ' Long-term trends in near-surface flow over the Baltic ' , International Journal of Climatology , vol. 23 , no. 3 , pp. 271-289 . https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 |
op_relation |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/a32ede08-4d88-4079-9d76-8d117cf1b45b |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.878 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
271 |
op_container_end_page |
289 |
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1797588685569392640 |