Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models
The future rates of ice sheet melt in Greenland and Antarctica are an important factor when making estimates of the likely rate of sea level rise. Global climate models that took part in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have generally been unable to replicate observed rates of...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/7b390bbf-3e34-4dab-a680-8a7458e34f41 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/266886824/tc_16_17_2022.pdf |
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ftdtupubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/7b390bbf-3e34-4dab-a680-8a7458e34f41 2024-06-23T07:47:22+00:00 Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Hansen, N. Yang, S. Langen, P. L. 2022 application/pdf https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/7b390bbf-3e34-4dab-a680-8a7458e34f41 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/266886824/tc_16_17_2022.pdf eng eng https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/7b390bbf-3e34-4dab-a680-8a7458e34f41 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Boberg , F , Mottram , R , Hansen , N , Yang , S & Langen , P L 2022 , ' Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models ' , The Cryosphere , vol. 16 , no. 1 , pp. 17-33 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2022 ftdtupubl https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 2024-06-11T15:07:42Z The future rates of ice sheet melt in Greenland and Antarctica are an important factor when making estimates of the likely rate of sea level rise. Global climate models that took part in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have generally been unable to replicate observed rates of ice sheet melt. With the advent of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with a general increase in the equilibrium climate sensitivity, we here compare two versions of the global climate model EC-Earth using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 downscaling of EC-Earth for Greenland and Antarctica. One version (v2) of EC-Earth is taken from CMIP5 for the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario and the other (v3) from CMIP6 for the comparable high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario. For Greenland, we downscale the two versions of EC-Earth for the historical period 1991–2010 and for the scenario period 2081–2100. For Antarctica, the periods are 1971–2000 and 2071–2100, respectively. For the Greenland Ice Sheet, we find that the mean change in temperature is 5.9 ∘ C when downscaling EC-Earth v2 and 6.8 ∘ C when downscaling EC-Earth v3. Corresponding values for Antarctica are 4.1 ∘ C for v2 and 4.8 ∘ C for v3. The mean change in surface mass balance at the end of the century under these high-emissions scenarios is found to be −290 Gt yr −1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr −1 (v3) for Greenland and 420 Gt yr −1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr −1 (v3) for Antarctica. These distinct differences in temperature change and particularly surface mass balance change are a result of the higher equilibrium climate sensitivity in EC-Earth v3 (4.3 K) compared with 3.3 K in EC-Earth v2 and the differences in greenhouse gas concentrations between the RCP8.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit Greenland The Cryosphere 16 1 17 33 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit |
op_collection_id |
ftdtupubl |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Hansen, N. Yang, S. Langen, P. L. Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
The future rates of ice sheet melt in Greenland and Antarctica are an important factor when making estimates of the likely rate of sea level rise. Global climate models that took part in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have generally been unable to replicate observed rates of ice sheet melt. With the advent of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with a general increase in the equilibrium climate sensitivity, we here compare two versions of the global climate model EC-Earth using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 downscaling of EC-Earth for Greenland and Antarctica. One version (v2) of EC-Earth is taken from CMIP5 for the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario and the other (v3) from CMIP6 for the comparable high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario. For Greenland, we downscale the two versions of EC-Earth for the historical period 1991–2010 and for the scenario period 2081–2100. For Antarctica, the periods are 1971–2000 and 2071–2100, respectively. For the Greenland Ice Sheet, we find that the mean change in temperature is 5.9 ∘ C when downscaling EC-Earth v2 and 6.8 ∘ C when downscaling EC-Earth v3. Corresponding values for Antarctica are 4.1 ∘ C for v2 and 4.8 ∘ C for v3. The mean change in surface mass balance at the end of the century under these high-emissions scenarios is found to be −290 Gt yr −1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr −1 (v3) for Greenland and 420 Gt yr −1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr −1 (v3) for Antarctica. These distinct differences in temperature change and particularly surface mass balance change are a result of the higher equilibrium climate sensitivity in EC-Earth v3 (4.3 K) compared with 3.3 K in EC-Earth v2 and the differences in greenhouse gas concentrations between the RCP8.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Hansen, N. Yang, S. Langen, P. L. |
author_facet |
Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Hansen, N. Yang, S. Langen, P. L. |
author_sort |
Boberg, F. |
title |
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models |
title_short |
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models |
title_full |
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models |
title_sort |
uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled ec-earth models |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/7b390bbf-3e34-4dab-a680-8a7458e34f41 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/266886824/tc_16_17_2022.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
Boberg , F , Mottram , R , Hansen , N , Yang , S & Langen , P L 2022 , ' Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models ' , The Cryosphere , vol. 16 , no. 1 , pp. 17-33 . https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 |
op_relation |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/7b390bbf-3e34-4dab-a680-8a7458e34f41 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
17 |
op_container_end_page |
33 |
_version_ |
1802651461189894144 |