Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach
Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model...
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ftdtupubl:oai:pure.atira.dk:publications/5a73e064-b3d9-4192-8d92-7f7401cbe2f9 2024-09-15T17:42:42+00:00 Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. McMillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. 2021 application/pdf https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/5a73e064-b3d9-4192-8d92-7f7401cbe2f9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/247150557/2020GL092060.pdf eng eng https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/5a73e064-b3d9-4192-8d92-7f7401cbe2f9 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Verjans , V , Leeson , A A , McMillan , M , Stevens , C M , van Wessem , J M , van de Berg , W J , van den Broeke , M R , Kittel , C , Amory , C , Fettweis , X , Hansen , N , Boberg , F & Mottram , R 2021 , ' Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 48 , no. 7 , e2020GL092060 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2021 ftdtupubl https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 2024-08-05T23:48:29Z Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr ‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit Geophysical Research Letters 48 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Technical University of Denmark: DTU Orbit |
op_collection_id |
ftdtupubl |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. McMillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr ‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. McMillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. |
author_facet |
Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. McMillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. |
author_sort |
Verjans, V. |
title |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_short |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_full |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_sort |
uncertainty in east antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/5a73e064-b3d9-4192-8d92-7f7401cbe2f9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/247150557/2020GL092060.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Verjans , V , Leeson , A A , McMillan , M , Stevens , C M , van Wessem , J M , van de Berg , W J , van den Broeke , M R , Kittel , C , Amory , C , Fettweis , X , Hansen , N , Boberg , F & Mottram , R 2021 , ' Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 48 , no. 7 , e2020GL092060 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
op_relation |
https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/5a73e064-b3d9-4192-8d92-7f7401cbe2f9 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
7 |
_version_ |
1810489400117690368 |