Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties:Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis

• Main Authors: Salling, Kim Bang, Leleur, Steen
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: Reference Class Forecasting; Transport Infrastructure Appraisal; Airfield Case; Socio-Economic Analysis; Reference Scenario Forecasting; Scenario Analysis; Quantitative Risk Analysis; Greenland; Nuuk
• Online Access: https://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/0506133e-e00c-451d-b532-36574d2ce3a9; https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/files/6495048/2012_01_01.pdf; http://www.ejtir.tbm.tudelft.nl/issues/2012_01/abstracts/2012_01_01.asp

This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating in...