Statistical Framework for Event Identification and Assessment of Seismic CTBT Monitoring Capability

• Main Authors: Fisk, Mark D., Gray, Henry L., McCartor, Gary D.
• Other Authors: MISSION RESEARCH CORP SANTA BARBARA CA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1995
• Subjects: Government and Political Science; Seismology; Seismic Detection and Detectors; Nuclear Weapons; *SEISMIC DETECTION; *SEISMIC WAVES; *ARMS CONTROL; *NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DETECTION; COMPUTER PROGRAMS; ALGORITHMS; SYMPOSIA; VERIFICATION; MONITORING; UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS; NUCLEAR EXPLOSION TESTING; SEISMIC DATA; DATA FUSION; DATA DISPLAYS; SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION; TREATIES; EARTHQUAKES; UNDERWATER ACOUSTICS; SEISMIC ARRAYS; SURFACE TRUTH; SEISMOLOGICAL STATIONS; GSETT-3; ARCESS(ARCTIC EXPERIMENTAL SMALL SUBARRAY); GERESS(GERMAN EXPERIMENTAL SMALL SUBARRAY); TEST BAN TREATIES; CTBT(COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY); Arctic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADP204505; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADP204505

This effort focuses on several main areas regarding event identification within the context of CTBT monitoring: (1) development and integration at the Center for Monitoring Research (CMR) of a software system for event characterization/identification; (2) assessment of regional seismic event identification performance; (3) analysis of GSETT-3 Alpha network data to assess the availability and utility of event characterization parameters for global monitoring; and (4) investigation of robust multi-sensor data fusion techniques for outlier detection and event classification. We have been implementing a statistical event identification framework. The fundamental methods consist of statistical tests for outlier detection and event classification, as well as algorithms to test appropriate assumptions regarding the data in order to optimize and ensure validity of the results. Our methodology: (1) accurately treats statistical uncertainties of all discriminants used; (2) provides flexibility to incorporate any discriminant and assess its utility objectively; (3) can identify nuclear tests in regions for which relevant ground-truth training data may or may not exist; (4) can function in an automated mode to flag, categorize and/or rank anomalous events; (5) can control the false alarm rate; (6) and provides a rigorous and defensible framework with which to report and justify the results. To also serve as an interactive analysis tool, we have been developing an X Window graphical user interface, featuring a wide range of displays and exploratory data analysis tools. We have applied the methods to seismic events recorded by the ARCESS and GERESS arrays, station WMQ in China, and stations KNB and MNV in the western U.S. This article is from 'Proceedings of the Annual Seismic Research Symposium on Monitoring a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (17th) Held in Scottsdale, Arizona on 12-15 September, 1995', 1996 0607 035, p858-868.