Towards Prediction of Environmental Arctic Change

• Main Author: Maslowski, Wieslaw
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2004
• Subjects: Physical and Dynamic Oceanography; Numerical Mathematics; *ARCTIC REGIONS; *ARCTIC OCEAN; *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION; *MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SEA ICE; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; SALINITY; OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA; ENVIRONMENTS; SYMPOSIA; HEATING; *WARMING; COMPONENT REPORTS; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; ice pack; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADP023853; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADP023853

Our main objective is to use models of the coupled ice-ocean Arctic environment to understand the past and present sea ice and ocean states and to predict future scenarios of environmental change in the Arctic Ocean. To meet this objective we have developed a coupled ice-ocean model of the sea ice covered northern hemisphere at 9-km and 45-level grid. The model has been spun up for 48 years. Three 24-year experiments have been completed following the spin up, all forced with realistic 1979-2002 ECMWF data but with a different surface temperature and salinity restoring times. Results from these integrations are compared to each other and to sea ice data available over this period to address the growing need for understanding the recent warming and the subsequent decrease of the Arctic Ice Pack during the late 1990s and 2000s. Presented at the DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP) Users Group Conference (UGC), held in Williamsburg, Virginia on 7-11 June 2004. The original document contains color images. All DTIC reproductions will be in black and white. This article is from ADA492363 Proceedings of the HPCMP Users Group Conference 2004.