Towards the Use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

• Main Authors: McClean, Julie L, Cornuelle, Bruce
• Other Authors: CALIFORNIA UNIV REGENTS LA JOLLA CA SCRIPPS INST OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2014
• Subjects: Meteorology; Physical and Dynamic Oceanography; *AIR WATER INTERACTIONS; *OCEAN MODELS; *OSCILLATION; OCEAN SURFACE; PREDICTIONS; SEA ICE; SEASONAL VARIATIONS; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; ENSO(EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION); HYCOM(HYBRID COORDINATE OCEAN MODEL); SST(SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE); Pacific; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA618049; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA618049

Coupled ocean/atmosphere variability in the tropical Pacific, through El Ni o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a major contributor to fluctuations in North American and global rainfall and temperature, including tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall events, and droughts. Prediction of ENSO beyond the few months between the occurrence of westerly wind events in the western Pacific and the equatorial warming that triggers the Bjerknes feedback has been a major challenge. The long-term goal of this project is to contribute to the development and testing of a global fully coupled prediction system for the operational US Navy. The target time scales of this system will be seasonal through interannual; an essential capability of this system will be to forecast ENSO conditions with a reasonable degree of certainty.