Report: Physics Constrained Stochastic Statistical Models for Extended Range Environmental Prediction

• Main Author: Majda, Andrew J
• Other Authors: NEW YORK UNIV NY COURANT INST OF MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: Atmospheric Physics; Statistics and Probability; *CLIMATE; *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION; *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; CONVECTION(HEAT TRANSFER); ENVIRONMENTS; FORECASTING; NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN; OSCILLATION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEA ICE; TURBULENCE; UNCERTAINTY; *STOCHASTIC STATISTICAL MODELS; ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION; NONLINEAR LAPLACIAN SPECTRAL ANALYSIS; MJO(MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION); Pacific; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA601833; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA601833

The timing of the receipt of the MURI funds in August 2012 hampered the assembly of the full MURI team in this initial reporting period since typically post docs in applied math only became available for hiring after June, July, August, 2013. Despite this difficulty there are exciting results on eight major topics in the MURI during the past year by MURI-PI, Andrew Majda, Co-PI s , Sam Stechmann (U. Wisconsin), John Harlim (Penn State), Duane Waliser (JPL-UCLA), and Dimitri Giannakis (Courant Institute) with their post docs and Ph.D. students: A. Reemergence Mechanisms for North Pacific Sea Ice Revealed through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis B. Symmetric and Antisymmetric Madden-Julian oscillation signals in tropical deep convective systems C. Limits of Predictability in the North Pacific Sector of a Comprehensive Climate Model D. Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO E. Observations and the Stochastic Skeleton Model F. Physics Constrained Nonlinear Regression Models for Time Series G. Statistically Accurate Low Order Models for Uncertainty Quantification in Turbulent Dynamical Systems H. Mathematical Techniques for Quantifying Uncertainty in Complex Systems with Model Error with Prototype Applications.