The Population Consequences of Disturbance Model Application to North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena Glacialis)

• Main Authors: Kraus, Scott D, Knowlton, Amy R, Rolland, Rosalind M, Schick, Rob
• Other Authors: NEW ENGLAND AQUARIUM BOSTON MA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: Biology; Stress Physiology; *COMMERCIAL FISHING; *HEALTH; *MORTALITY RATE; *REPRODUCTION(PHYSIOLOGY); *SHIPS; *STRESS(PHYSIOLOGY); *WHALES; BAYES THEOREM; DATA PROCESSING; MEASUREMENT; NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN; PHYSIOLOGICAL EFFECTS; POSITION(LOCATION); SURVIVAL(GENERAL); TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNDERWATER ACOUSTICS; *NORTH ATLANTIC RIGHT WHALES; *POPULATION CONSEQUENCES OF DISTURBANCE MODELING; *FISHING GEAR ENTANGLEMENTS; *SHIP STRIKES; ACOUSTIC DISTURBANCES; VISUAL HEALTH ASSESSMENTS; SKIN CONDITION; BODY CONDITION; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PROPELLOR SCARRING; MISSING DATA IMPUTATION; Eubalaena glacialis; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA599706; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA599706

Anthropogenic noise is known to cause both behavioral and physiological changes in marine mammals, but the potential for long-term population effects is not known. The Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance (PCAD) model (NRC 2005) provided a framework to trace the effects of acoustic disturbance through the life history of a marine mammal to its population status. Developments in the model have been designed to determine if the effects of any disturbance can be traced from individuals to the population by way of changes in either behavior or physiology, and the revised approach is called PCOD (Population Consequences of Disturbance). In North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), extensive data on health and body condition, anthropogenic impacts, and individual life history exist. The primary goal of this study is to model visual observations of health, human impacts (including fishing gear entanglements and ship strikes), and whale locations to provide estimates of true underlying condition and individual-level survival for right whales. Secondary goals include modeling fecundity, and exploring the feasibility of incorporating acoustic disturbance and prey variability into the PCOD model. The specific objectives of this study are to develop a Hierarchical Bayesian Model to assess right whale biology, assess the effects of health indicators on reproduction and mortality in right whales, and assess the effects of fishing gear entanglements and sub-lethal ship strikes on reproduction and mortality in right whales. The immediate objective for FY 2013 was to complete development of the appropriate model, and to start incorporating the data from entanglements and ship strikes.