Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Over the Western North Pacific with the Global Hawk: Operational Requirements, Benefits, and Feasibility

• Main Author: Atkinson, III, Robert E
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF METEOROLOGY
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: Pilotless Aircraft; Meteorology; Geography; *AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE; *DRONES; *IN SITU ANALYSIS; *NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN; *OBSERVATION; *TROPICAL CYCLONES; *WEATHER FORECASTING; ACCURACY; DATA ACQUISITION; FEASIBILITY STUDIES; HISTORY; INSTRUMENTATION; REQUIREMENTS; SATELLITE IMAGERY; THESES; UNMANNED; *GLOBAL HAWK; *WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN; *TROPICAL CYCLONE RECONNAISSANCE; UAV(UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES); GLOPAC(NASA GLOBAL HAWK PACIFIC); GRIP(GENESIS AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROJECT); WISPAR(WINTER STORMS AND PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS); HALE UAV(ALTAIR HIGH ALTITUDE LONG ENDURANCE UAV); AEROSONDE UAS; AUAV(MALDIVES AUTONOMOUS UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE CAMPAIGN); WISDOM(WEATHER IN-SITU DEPLOYMENT OPTIMIZATION METHOD); GALE UAS; HS3(HURRICANE SEVERE STORM SENTINEL); OPERATIONAL TEST PLAN; Hale; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA567114; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA567114

Over the North Atlantic Ocean, tropical cyclone (TC) reconnaissance is conducted by the U.S. Air Force with manned aircraft. However, no aircraft reconnaissance is conducted over the western North Pacific (WPAC), where the maximum annual number of TCs occur. Rather, remotely sensed observations from satellites provide data on TC characteristics in the WPAC. While operational forecasts of TC tracks over the WPAC have improved, the rate of improvement has declined. Over the North Atlantic, no such decline has been observed. In this study, it is shown that the decline in rate of improvement of forecast accuracy over the WPAC is related to the lack of in situ observations there. The capabilities of manned-aircraft reconnaissance are compared with the use of a Global Hawk unmanned aerial system as an observing platform. This is proposed in view of current projections of a rapidly declining capability in satellite data coverage. Current Global Hawk programs, instrumentation, communications, and costs are reviewed with respect to required capabilities for an operational TC reconnaissance program over the WPAC. A multi-year demonstration project is proposed to obtain in situ observations of tropical cyclone location and intensity over the WPAC. Provided that a positive outcome is achieved, the use of a Global Hawk for operational TC reconnaissance in the WPAC is recommended.