Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic
The skill of individual ensemble prediction systems (EPS) is evaluated in terms of the probability of a tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast being within an expected area. Anisotropic probability ellipses are defined from each EPS to contain 68% of the ensemble forecast members. Forecast reliability...
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ftdtic:ADA562832 2023-05-15T17:30:52+02:00 Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic Nixon, Christopher E NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 2012-06 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA562832 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA562832 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA562832 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DTIC Meteorology Statistics and Probability *HURRICANE TRACKING *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *TROPICAL CYCLONES FORECASTING ISOTROPISM NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PREDICTIONS THESES Text 2012 ftdtic 2016-02-24T08:08:22Z The skill of individual ensemble prediction systems (EPS) is evaluated in terms of the probability of a tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast being within an expected area. Anisotropic probability ellipses are defined from each EPS to contain 68% of the ensemble forecast members. Forecast reliability is based on whether the forecast verifying position is within the ellipse. A sharpness parameter is based on the size of the EPS probability ellipse relative to the main operational forecast probability product, the Goerss Predicted Consensus Error (GPCE). For the 2008-2011 Atlantic TC seasons, the ECMWF ellipses have the highest degree of reliability of the EPSs. Additionally, the ECMWF ellipse has a higher resolution than the GPCE operational product over all forecast intervals. The sizes and shapes of the EPS ellipses varied with TC track types, which suggests that information about the physics of the flow-dependent system is retained compared to isotropic probability circles that may not reflect variability associated with track type. It is concluded that the ECMWF ensemble contributes the most to a combined EPS-based product called the Grand Ensemble (GE), and further modification of the GE to reflect this has a potential for reducing the sizes of warning areas. The original document contains color images. Text North Atlantic Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
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Open Polar |
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Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology Statistics and Probability *HURRICANE TRACKING *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *TROPICAL CYCLONES FORECASTING ISOTROPISM NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PREDICTIONS THESES |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology Statistics and Probability *HURRICANE TRACKING *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *TROPICAL CYCLONES FORECASTING ISOTROPISM NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PREDICTIONS THESES Nixon, Christopher E Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Meteorology Statistics and Probability *HURRICANE TRACKING *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *TROPICAL CYCLONES FORECASTING ISOTROPISM NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PREDICTIONS THESES |
description |
The skill of individual ensemble prediction systems (EPS) is evaluated in terms of the probability of a tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast being within an expected area. Anisotropic probability ellipses are defined from each EPS to contain 68% of the ensemble forecast members. Forecast reliability is based on whether the forecast verifying position is within the ellipse. A sharpness parameter is based on the size of the EPS probability ellipse relative to the main operational forecast probability product, the Goerss Predicted Consensus Error (GPCE). For the 2008-2011 Atlantic TC seasons, the ECMWF ellipses have the highest degree of reliability of the EPSs. Additionally, the ECMWF ellipse has a higher resolution than the GPCE operational product over all forecast intervals. The sizes and shapes of the EPS ellipses varied with TC track types, which suggests that information about the physics of the flow-dependent system is retained compared to isotropic probability circles that may not reflect variability associated with track type. It is concluded that the ECMWF ensemble contributes the most to a combined EPS-based product called the Grand Ensemble (GE), and further modification of the GE to reflect this has a potential for reducing the sizes of warning areas. The original document contains color images. |
author2 |
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Nixon, Christopher E |
author_facet |
Nixon, Christopher E |
author_sort |
Nixon, Christopher E |
title |
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
statistical analysis of ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks over the north atlantic |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA562832 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA562832 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
DTIC |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA562832 |
op_rights |
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. |
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1766127982661861376 |