Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments
The primary goals of this project are to assess the ability of the current generation of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate extreme Arctic cyclones, and to identify changes in the characteristics of these storms caused by greenhouse-forced climate change to the present. These goals are being a...
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ftdtic:ADA557060 2023-05-15T14:41:21+02:00 Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments Vavrus, Stephen WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH 2011-09-30 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA557060 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA557060 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA557060 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DTIC Meteorology Humanities and History Physical and Dynamic Oceanography Computer Programming and Software *ARCTIC OCEAN *ARCTIC REGIONS *CLIMATE *CLIMATE CHANGE *CYCLONES *GREENHOUSE EFFECT *HISTORY *MODELS AIR WATER INTERACTIONS BAROMETRIC PRESSURE COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION COUPLING(INTERACTION) MARINE ATMOSPHERES SEA ICE STORMS VARIATIONS *GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS *ARCTIC CYCLONES HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION CYCLOGENETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE GREENHOUSE FORCING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEA ICE REDUCTION Text 2011 ftdtic 2016-02-23T10:27:08Z The primary goals of this project are to assess the ability of the current generation of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate extreme Arctic cyclones, and to identify changes in the characteristics of these storms caused by greenhouse-forced climate change to the present. These goals are being addressed through the following questions. First, how realistically does the widely used CCSM4 GCM simulate the observed characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones, and how sensitive are these events to the horizontal resolution of the model? Second, do other GCMs generate such storms and, if so, are there any common characteristics among models that successfully do so? Third, does the preferred location of these systems and their impact shift as the cyclogenetic baroclinic zone induced by the sea ice margin migrates poleward with time? Fourth, what do these state-of-the-art climate models suggest about changes in the frequency vs. intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output from various models is becoming available and eventually should include around 20 GCMs with widely varying resolutions. These simulations will be compared with a new atmospheric reanalysis data set covering almost this entire period (1871-2008) from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory: The 20th Century Reanalysis, Version 2. This data set is described in detail by Compo et al. (2010) and provides various atmospheric fields, including sea level pressure, on daily and sub-daily time scales at 2 degrees horizontal resolution. All of this work is being conducted by the PI. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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Open Polar |
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Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
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language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology Humanities and History Physical and Dynamic Oceanography Computer Programming and Software *ARCTIC OCEAN *ARCTIC REGIONS *CLIMATE *CLIMATE CHANGE *CYCLONES *GREENHOUSE EFFECT *HISTORY *MODELS AIR WATER INTERACTIONS BAROMETRIC PRESSURE COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION COUPLING(INTERACTION) MARINE ATMOSPHERES SEA ICE STORMS VARIATIONS *GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS *ARCTIC CYCLONES HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION CYCLOGENETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE GREENHOUSE FORCING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEA ICE REDUCTION |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology Humanities and History Physical and Dynamic Oceanography Computer Programming and Software *ARCTIC OCEAN *ARCTIC REGIONS *CLIMATE *CLIMATE CHANGE *CYCLONES *GREENHOUSE EFFECT *HISTORY *MODELS AIR WATER INTERACTIONS BAROMETRIC PRESSURE COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION COUPLING(INTERACTION) MARINE ATMOSPHERES SEA ICE STORMS VARIATIONS *GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS *ARCTIC CYCLONES HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION CYCLOGENETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE GREENHOUSE FORCING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEA ICE REDUCTION Vavrus, Stephen Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments |
topic_facet |
Meteorology Humanities and History Physical and Dynamic Oceanography Computer Programming and Software *ARCTIC OCEAN *ARCTIC REGIONS *CLIMATE *CLIMATE CHANGE *CYCLONES *GREENHOUSE EFFECT *HISTORY *MODELS AIR WATER INTERACTIONS BAROMETRIC PRESSURE COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION COUPLING(INTERACTION) MARINE ATMOSPHERES SEA ICE STORMS VARIATIONS *GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS *ARCTIC CYCLONES HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION CYCLOGENETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE GREENHOUSE FORCING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SEA ICE REDUCTION |
description |
The primary goals of this project are to assess the ability of the current generation of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate extreme Arctic cyclones, and to identify changes in the characteristics of these storms caused by greenhouse-forced climate change to the present. These goals are being addressed through the following questions. First, how realistically does the widely used CCSM4 GCM simulate the observed characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones, and how sensitive are these events to the horizontal resolution of the model? Second, do other GCMs generate such storms and, if so, are there any common characteristics among models that successfully do so? Third, does the preferred location of these systems and their impact shift as the cyclogenetic baroclinic zone induced by the sea ice margin migrates poleward with time? Fourth, what do these state-of-the-art climate models suggest about changes in the frequency vs. intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output from various models is becoming available and eventually should include around 20 GCMs with widely varying resolutions. These simulations will be compared with a new atmospheric reanalysis data set covering almost this entire period (1871-2008) from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory: The 20th Century Reanalysis, Version 2. This data set is described in detail by Compo et al. (2010) and provides various atmospheric fields, including sea level pressure, on daily and sub-daily time scales at 2 degrees horizontal resolution. All of this work is being conducted by the PI. |
author2 |
WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH |
format |
Text |
author |
Vavrus, Stephen |
author_facet |
Vavrus, Stephen |
author_sort |
Vavrus, Stephen |
title |
Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments |
title_short |
Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments |
title_full |
Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments |
title_fullStr |
Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments |
title_sort |
simulation of extreme arctic cyclones in ipcc ar5 experiments |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA557060 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA557060 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
DTIC |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA557060 |
op_rights |
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. |
_version_ |
1766313135858253824 |