Uncertainties in Climate Model Projections of Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss

• Main Author: Holland, Marika
• Other Authors: NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER CO
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2010
• Subjects: Meteorology; Geography; Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *ARCTIC REGIONS; *CLIMATE CHANGE; *COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; *FORECASTING; *LOSSES; *SEA ICE; *UNCERTAINTY; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; LONG RANGE(TIME); MODELS; PREDICTIONS; SEASONAL VARIATIONS; SYMPOSIA; *CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS; *ARCTIC SEA ICE LOSS; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; BRIEFING CHARTS; Arctic; Climate change; Ice; permafrost; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA554067; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA554067

Observations indicate that the Arctic has undergone rapid environmental change over the last 30 years. This includes significant reductions in sea ice cover that are most pronounced in summer. Climate model simulations consistently project that long-term sea ice loss will continue in the future in response to rising greenhouse gas forcing. However, models differ on the character of this future sea ice loss, including the rates of change, the likelihood that periods of abrupt loss could occur, and the timing at which a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. Here we discuss climate model simulations of projected sea ice loss, the inherent uncertainties in these projections, and the factors that contribute to the range of model projections. This includes an analysis of the potential for periods of rapid sea ice loss. Finally some insights on the research needed to narrow climate model uncertainty are given. Presented at the Annual Partners in Environmental Technology Technical Symposium and Workshop (15th) held in Washington, DC on 30 Nov-2 Dec 2010. Sponsored by SERDP and ESTCP. U.S. Government or Federal Rights License.