Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #1: Defence Scenario

• Main Authors: Mugridge, David, Avis, Peter, Race, Peter
• Other Authors: LANSDOWNE TECHNOLOGIES INC ONTARIO (CANADA)
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2011
• Subjects: Administration and Management; *ARCTIC REGIONS; *RESEARCH MANAGEMENT; CANADA; LEGISLATION; METHODOLOGY; PLANNING; POLICIES; PROBABILITY; SCENARIOS; FOREIGN REPORTS; SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT; CAPABILITY BASED PLANNING; CIT(CAPABILITY INVENTORY TOOL); Arctic; Canada; Cora
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA551007; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA551007

With the change in northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have focused on the future of the Arctic. DRDC CORA has taken on a number of research projects, including the development of two Arctic security scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with a view to developing scenarios for future planning and assisting operational commands in their interactions with other operations centres. This report presents one of two scenarios, focused on a defence-centric response scenario. The scenario makes use of the CIT to present an overview of the current situation and presents a projection out to 2015 to set context for a security environment in which there are significant tensions between Canada and Russia over arctic sovereignty. While all efforts have been taken to present a plausible scenario, the research was not based on any intelligence assessments and is not intended to be considered a probable future. Rather, it presents a context to test a range of capabilities required for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives.