A Comprehensive Modeling Approach Towards Understanding and Prediction of the Alaskan Coastal System Response to Changes in an Ice-Diminished Arctic

• Main Authors: Maslowski, Wieslaw, Cassano, John J., Walsh, John J.
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEPT OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2007
• Subjects: Physical and Dynamic Oceanography; Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *COASTAL REGIONS; *PREDICTIONS; *MODELS; *ALASKA; *SEA ICE; *ARCTIC REGIONS; OCEAN CURRENTS; AIR WATER INTERACTIONS; ALBEDO; ADVECTION; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Pacific; albedo; Comprehensive Modeling Approach Towards Understanding and Prediction of the Alaskan Coastal System Response to Changes in an Ice diminished Arctic; Ice; permafrost; Sea ice; Alaska
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA481005; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA481005

The main science hypothesis to be addressed in this project can be formulated as follows. The recently observed dramatic decrease of summer sea ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean is driven by two main, primarily local factors: (1) the oceanic heat advection of summer Pacific Water via the Alaska Coastal Current and (2) the positive ice-albedo feedback. To understand physical processes and air-sea-ice interactions involved in these two driving factors, detailed studies, including historical and new observations and very high-resolution modeling, of the Alaska coastal environment are required. The following five specific science goals are proposed to address those requirements in support of the main hypothesis of this project: 1. Explore feedback processes among sea ice, ocean and atmosphere leading to recent and possible future summer decreases of sea ice cover in the Western Arctic Ocean; 2. Quantify impacts of oceanic and atmospheric forcing on regional sea ice cover and its variability; 3. Determine effects of changing sea ice, ocean dynamics and atmospheric circulation on the Alaskan coastal ecosystem (due to temporal and spatial variability); 4. Establish numerical requirements for an optimal hindcast and prediction of environmental conditions in the Alaskan coastal system; 5. Provide guidance for optimal design of an integrated observing system of the Alaskan coastal environment. Prepared in collaboration with University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, and University of South Florida, Saint Petersburg, FL. The original document contains color images.