First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices
Climate variability is simply represented by teleconnection patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and Southern Oscillation (SO) with associated indices Two approaches can be used to predict t...
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ftdtic:ADA478896 2023-05-15T13:58:29+02:00 First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices Chu, Peter C. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA NAVAL OCEAN ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION LAB 2008 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA478896 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA478896 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA478896 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DTIC Meteorology *CLIMATE *PATTERNS FUNCTIONS TIME INTERVALS DENSITY INDEXES OSCILLATION SOUTH(DIRECTION) NORTH AMERICA ARCTIC REGIONS ANTARCTIC REGIONS BROWNIAN MOTION NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN FORWARD AREAS PREDICTIONS TIME SERIES ANALYSIS VARIATIONS Text 2008 ftdtic 2016-02-22T14:29:28Z Climate variability is simply represented by teleconnection patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and Southern Oscillation (SO) with associated indices Two approaches can be used to predict the indices: forward and backward methods The forward method is commonly used to predict the index fluctuation p at time t with a given temporal increment t Using this method% it was found that the index (such as for NAO) has the Brownian fluctuations On the base of the first passage time (FPT) concept, the backward method is introduced in this study to predict the typical time span (t) needed to generate a fluctuation in the index of a given increment p After the five monthly indices (AO, AAO, NAO, PNA, SO) running through the past history, the FPT density functions are obtained. FPT presents a new way to detect the temporal variability of the climate indices. The basic features for the index prediction are also discussed. Text Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database Arctic Antarctic Pacific |
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Open Polar |
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Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology *CLIMATE *PATTERNS FUNCTIONS TIME INTERVALS DENSITY INDEXES OSCILLATION SOUTH(DIRECTION) NORTH AMERICA ARCTIC REGIONS ANTARCTIC REGIONS BROWNIAN MOTION NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN FORWARD AREAS PREDICTIONS TIME SERIES ANALYSIS VARIATIONS |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology *CLIMATE *PATTERNS FUNCTIONS TIME INTERVALS DENSITY INDEXES OSCILLATION SOUTH(DIRECTION) NORTH AMERICA ARCTIC REGIONS ANTARCTIC REGIONS BROWNIAN MOTION NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN FORWARD AREAS PREDICTIONS TIME SERIES ANALYSIS VARIATIONS Chu, Peter C. First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices |
topic_facet |
Meteorology *CLIMATE *PATTERNS FUNCTIONS TIME INTERVALS DENSITY INDEXES OSCILLATION SOUTH(DIRECTION) NORTH AMERICA ARCTIC REGIONS ANTARCTIC REGIONS BROWNIAN MOTION NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN FORWARD AREAS PREDICTIONS TIME SERIES ANALYSIS VARIATIONS |
description |
Climate variability is simply represented by teleconnection patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and Southern Oscillation (SO) with associated indices Two approaches can be used to predict the indices: forward and backward methods The forward method is commonly used to predict the index fluctuation p at time t with a given temporal increment t Using this method% it was found that the index (such as for NAO) has the Brownian fluctuations On the base of the first passage time (FPT) concept, the backward method is introduced in this study to predict the typical time span (t) needed to generate a fluctuation in the index of a given increment p After the five monthly indices (AO, AAO, NAO, PNA, SO) running through the past history, the FPT density functions are obtained. FPT presents a new way to detect the temporal variability of the climate indices. The basic features for the index prediction are also discussed. |
author2 |
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA NAVAL OCEAN ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION LAB |
format |
Text |
author |
Chu, Peter C. |
author_facet |
Chu, Peter C. |
author_sort |
Chu, Peter C. |
title |
First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices |
title_short |
First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices |
title_full |
First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices |
title_fullStr |
First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices |
title_full_unstemmed |
First Passage Time Analysis on Climate Indices |
title_sort |
first passage time analysis on climate indices |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA478896 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA478896 |
geographic |
Arctic Antarctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Antarctic Pacific |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
DTIC |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA478896 |
op_rights |
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. |
_version_ |
1766266798371504128 |