Long-Range Operational Military Forecasts for Iraq

• Main Author: Hanson, Christopher M.
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2007
• Subjects: Meteorology; Military Forces and Organizations; *WEATHER FORECASTING; *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS; MILITARY OPERATIONS; METHODOLOGY; DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE; GLOBAL; IRAQ; LONG RANGE(TIME); PRECIPITATION; CLIMATE; OCEANOGRAPHY; NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; OSCILLATION; MILITARY PLANNING; CLIMATOLOGY; GUIDANCE; SEASONAL VARIATIONS; RELIABILITY; PRODUCTION; COMMUNITIES; MISSION PROFILES; STATE OF THE ART; METEOROLOGICAL DATA; EL NINO; LA NINA; LONG-RANGE FORECASTS; COMPOSITE ANALYSIS FORECAST METHOD; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA467246; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA467246

The military weather community is mandated by the Department of Defense (DoD) to provide accurate, timely, and reliable meteorological information necessary for commanders to exploit the best windows of opportunity for operations. In order to meet this mandate, the military must apply state-of-the-art longrange forecasting techniques. This study was motivated by the need for long-range forecasts for mission planning in Iraq. To develop these forecasts, we tested and adapted composite analysis and forecasting techniques used by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) for forecasts in the continental U.S. Using these techniques, we conducted seasonal composite analyses for Iraq surface temperature and precipitation rate, with the compositing based on the observed occurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino La Nina (ENLN) climate variations. We then used composite analysis results to produce long range forecasts of Iraq surface temperature and precipitation rate based on the predicted occurrence of the NAO and ENLN. These forecasts outperformed forecasts based on long-term means (LTMs). Forecasts based on LTMs are currently the best available long range forecasts available from DoD. Thus, the composite analysis forecasts developed and tested in this study are a clear improvement over presently available DoD long range guidance products. The outcome of this study is a vector for the DoD weather community to expand out from the almost exclusive use of LTM based climatological products, and to invest in modern state-of-the-art methods for to supporting the global mission of the DoD.