Objectively Determined Model- Derived Parameters Associated With Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation

During the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season, an objective tropical cyclone voice identification and tracking technique was applied to analyzed and forecast fields of three global operational numerical models- the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) , the Na...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Cowan, Christy G.
Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2006
Subjects:
Meteorology
*FORECASTING
*TROPICAL CYCLONES
LINEAR SYSTEMS
FUNCTIONS
TRACKING
FALSE ALARMS
SPEECH RECOGNITION
VOICE COMMUNICATIONS
DISCRIMINATE ANALYSIS
TROPICAL REGIONS
VORTICES
THESES
METHODOLOGY
PARAMETERS
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA451323
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA451323
Description
Summary:During the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season, an objective tropical cyclone voice identification and tracking technique was applied to analyzed and forecast fields of three global operational numerical models- the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) , the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model (UKMET) . For the purpose of evaluating each model's performance with respect to forecasting tropical cyclone formation, 14 relevant parameters are cataloged for every tropical voice. In this study, nine of the fourteen parameters are subjected to a linear discriminant analysis applied to all forecast vortices that exceed vorticity and warm core thresholds. The goal is to determine the combination of parameters for each model, at each 12-h forecast period to 120h, that best discriminates between a voice that is correctly forecast to intensify into a tropical cyclone (developer) and a voice that is forecast to intensify into a tropical cyclone, but does not (false alarm). The performance of the resulting discriminant functions are then assessed using the Heidke Skill Score and Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Overall, the methodology applied to forecasts from the UKMET model shows the most skill with regard to identifying correct forecasts of tropical cyclone formation. The original document contains color images.

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