Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation.
An issue of major importance in numerical weather prediction is the requirement to provide models with accurate initial conditions. The Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) provides an opportunity to examine the impact of special observational data in 1-3 day forecasts of north Atlant...
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ftdtic:ADA350156 2023-05-15T17:32:34+02:00 Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. Langland, Rolf H. Gelaro, Ronald Rohaly, Gregory D. Shapiro, Melvyn A. OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA 1997 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA350156 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA350156 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA350156 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DTIC AND NTIS Theoretical Mathematics Meteorology *NUMERICAL ANALYSIS *FORECASTING *WEATHER FORECASTING *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGY *PATTERNS POSITION(LOCATION) TEMPERATURE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATION ERRORS ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONES TEMPERATE REGIONS DROPSONDES METEOROLOGISTS FASTEX(FRONTS AND ATLANTIC STORM TRACK EXPERIMENT) PE61153N Text 1997 ftdtic 2016-02-19T23:41:18Z An issue of major importance in numerical weather prediction is the requirement to provide models with accurate initial conditions. The Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) provides an opportunity to examine the impact of special observational data in 1-3 day forecasts of north Atlantic cyclones. An overview of FASTEX objectives and observational resources is contained in July et al (1997). The FASTEX field phase (January - February 1997) provided the first test of so-called "adaptive" observation techniques, in which objective guidance from numerical models was used to "target observational resources (e.g., dropsonde aircraft) to specific areas. In this study we describe the impact of targeted aircraft dropsonde, and GOES-8 wind data on a 24 hr forecast of the cyclone in FASTEX IOP-18. It is well established that numerical forecasts are much more sensitive to initial condition changes in certain locations than in others. In "sensitive" locations, changes to initial conditions (including changes which night result from new observational data) can have critical effects on the development of a forecast feature, such as a cyclone, or on measures of forecast error. Adjoint methods can be used to determine sensitivity patterns related to error growth in mid-latitude forecast situations, (for example, see Rabier et al. 1996). Both dry and moist adjoint sensitivity studies suggest that mid-latitude synoptic-scale cyclones (on the 1-3 day range) have maximum sensitivity to temperature and wind in the mid-lower troposphere (roughly 400-800 mb), in relatively localized areas of the upstream baroclinic storm track (also see Langland et al. 1995). The problem of adaptive observations does not center on identity%and correcting the largest analysis errors, but rather on correcting analysis error in critical locations, where any initial error can amplify with very large growth rates. Text North Atlantic Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Theoretical Mathematics Meteorology *NUMERICAL ANALYSIS *FORECASTING *WEATHER FORECASTING *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGY *PATTERNS POSITION(LOCATION) TEMPERATURE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATION ERRORS ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONES TEMPERATE REGIONS DROPSONDES METEOROLOGISTS FASTEX(FRONTS AND ATLANTIC STORM TRACK EXPERIMENT) PE61153N |
spellingShingle |
Theoretical Mathematics Meteorology *NUMERICAL ANALYSIS *FORECASTING *WEATHER FORECASTING *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGY *PATTERNS POSITION(LOCATION) TEMPERATURE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATION ERRORS ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONES TEMPERATE REGIONS DROPSONDES METEOROLOGISTS FASTEX(FRONTS AND ATLANTIC STORM TRACK EXPERIMENT) PE61153N Langland, Rolf H. Gelaro, Ronald Rohaly, Gregory D. Shapiro, Melvyn A. Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. |
topic_facet |
Theoretical Mathematics Meteorology *NUMERICAL ANALYSIS *FORECASTING *WEATHER FORECASTING *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGY *PATTERNS POSITION(LOCATION) TEMPERATURE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATION ERRORS ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONES TEMPERATE REGIONS DROPSONDES METEOROLOGISTS FASTEX(FRONTS AND ATLANTIC STORM TRACK EXPERIMENT) PE61153N |
description |
An issue of major importance in numerical weather prediction is the requirement to provide models with accurate initial conditions. The Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX) provides an opportunity to examine the impact of special observational data in 1-3 day forecasts of north Atlantic cyclones. An overview of FASTEX objectives and observational resources is contained in July et al (1997). The FASTEX field phase (January - February 1997) provided the first test of so-called "adaptive" observation techniques, in which objective guidance from numerical models was used to "target observational resources (e.g., dropsonde aircraft) to specific areas. In this study we describe the impact of targeted aircraft dropsonde, and GOES-8 wind data on a 24 hr forecast of the cyclone in FASTEX IOP-18. It is well established that numerical forecasts are much more sensitive to initial condition changes in certain locations than in others. In "sensitive" locations, changes to initial conditions (including changes which night result from new observational data) can have critical effects on the development of a forecast feature, such as a cyclone, or on measures of forecast error. Adjoint methods can be used to determine sensitivity patterns related to error growth in mid-latitude forecast situations, (for example, see Rabier et al. 1996). Both dry and moist adjoint sensitivity studies suggest that mid-latitude synoptic-scale cyclones (on the 1-3 day range) have maximum sensitivity to temperature and wind in the mid-lower troposphere (roughly 400-800 mb), in relatively localized areas of the upstream baroclinic storm track (also see Langland et al. 1995). The problem of adaptive observations does not center on identity%and correcting the largest analysis errors, but rather on correcting analysis error in critical locations, where any initial error can amplify with very large growth rates. |
author2 |
OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA |
format |
Text |
author |
Langland, Rolf H. Gelaro, Ronald Rohaly, Gregory D. Shapiro, Melvyn A. |
author_facet |
Langland, Rolf H. Gelaro, Ronald Rohaly, Gregory D. Shapiro, Melvyn A. |
author_sort |
Langland, Rolf H. |
title |
Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. |
title_short |
Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. |
title_full |
Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. |
title_fullStr |
Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Adaptive Observations in Fastex IOP-18: Data Impact and Synoptic Interpretation. |
title_sort |
adaptive observations in fastex iop-18: data impact and synoptic interpretation. |
publishDate |
1997 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA350156 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA350156 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA350156 |
op_rights |
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
_version_ |
1766130755125116928 |