Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic.
A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting was introduced in 1994 by Carr and Elsberry to help forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam. The author was trained in the Systematic Approach as part of a reproducibility test for western Pacific cyclones as described in C...
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ftdtic:ADA305989 2023-05-15T17:27:21+02:00 Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. Kent, Christipher S. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 1995-12 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA305989 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA305989 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA305989 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DTIC AND NTIS Meteorology *TRACKING *WEATHER FORECASTING *NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN *TROPICAL CYCLONES TEST AND EVALUATION ENVIRONMENTS MODIFICATION PATHS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION REGIONS IMAGES PATTERNS PACIFIC OCEAN CLIMATOLOGY WEST(DIRECTION) REPRODUCIBILITY TRANSFORMATIONS SYNCHRONOUS SATELLITES RIDGES SUBTROPICAL REGIONS GUAM SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHY SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY *CYCLONE TRACKING Text 1995 ftdtic 2016-02-19T18:03:05Z A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting was introduced in 1994 by Carr and Elsberry to help forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam. The author was trained in the Systematic Approach as part of a reproducibility test for western Pacific cyclones as described in Chapter II. This study is the application of the meteorological framework of Carr and Elsberry to the North Atlantic. All North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1990-1994 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the North Atlantic requires three modifications in the Environment Structure and TC- Environment transformation mechanisms: (i) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; (ii) a variation on the North-oriented Pattern is added; and (iii) a Weak Westerlies Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Pattern. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transformation mechanism. A preliminary climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. While the Standard Pattern is the most common, it is surprising that the Weakened Ridge Region is so prevalent. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region. Text North Atlantic Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database Carr ENVELOPE(130.717,130.717,-66.117,-66.117) Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology *TRACKING *WEATHER FORECASTING *NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN *TROPICAL CYCLONES TEST AND EVALUATION ENVIRONMENTS MODIFICATION PATHS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION REGIONS IMAGES PATTERNS PACIFIC OCEAN CLIMATOLOGY WEST(DIRECTION) REPRODUCIBILITY TRANSFORMATIONS SYNCHRONOUS SATELLITES RIDGES SUBTROPICAL REGIONS GUAM SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHY SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY *CYCLONE TRACKING |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology *TRACKING *WEATHER FORECASTING *NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN *TROPICAL CYCLONES TEST AND EVALUATION ENVIRONMENTS MODIFICATION PATHS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION REGIONS IMAGES PATTERNS PACIFIC OCEAN CLIMATOLOGY WEST(DIRECTION) REPRODUCIBILITY TRANSFORMATIONS SYNCHRONOUS SATELLITES RIDGES SUBTROPICAL REGIONS GUAM SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHY SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY *CYCLONE TRACKING Kent, Christipher S. Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. |
topic_facet |
Meteorology *TRACKING *WEATHER FORECASTING *NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN *TROPICAL CYCLONES TEST AND EVALUATION ENVIRONMENTS MODIFICATION PATHS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION REGIONS IMAGES PATTERNS PACIFIC OCEAN CLIMATOLOGY WEST(DIRECTION) REPRODUCIBILITY TRANSFORMATIONS SYNCHRONOUS SATELLITES RIDGES SUBTROPICAL REGIONS GUAM SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHY SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY *CYCLONE TRACKING |
description |
A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting was introduced in 1994 by Carr and Elsberry to help forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam. The author was trained in the Systematic Approach as part of a reproducibility test for western Pacific cyclones as described in Chapter II. This study is the application of the meteorological framework of Carr and Elsberry to the North Atlantic. All North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1990-1994 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the North Atlantic requires three modifications in the Environment Structure and TC- Environment transformation mechanisms: (i) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; (ii) a variation on the North-oriented Pattern is added; and (iii) a Weak Westerlies Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Pattern. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transformation mechanism. A preliminary climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. While the Standard Pattern is the most common, it is surprising that the Weakened Ridge Region is so prevalent. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region. |
author2 |
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Kent, Christipher S. |
author_facet |
Kent, Christipher S. |
author_sort |
Kent, Christipher S. |
title |
Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. |
title_short |
Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. |
title_full |
Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. |
title_fullStr |
Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic. |
title_sort |
systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the north atlantic. |
publishDate |
1995 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA305989 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA305989 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(130.717,130.717,-66.117,-66.117) |
geographic |
Carr Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Carr Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA305989 |
op_rights |
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
_version_ |
1766119396296622080 |