A Comparison of Aircraft Icing Forecast Models.

• Main Authors: Cornell, Daniel, Donahue, Christopher A., Keith, Chan
• Other Authors: AIR FORCE COMBAT CLIMATOLOGY CENTER SCOTT AFB IL
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1995
• Subjects: Attack and Fighter Aircraft; Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *JET AIRCRAFT; *ICE FORECASTING; COMPUTER PROGRAMS; ALGORITHMS; GLOBAL; PILOTS; INTENSITY; ICE FORMATION; WEATHER FORECASTING; ERRORS; AIRCRAFT MODELS; PIREP(PILOT REPORTS); NODDS(NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM); TESS(TACTICAL ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT SYSTEM); Ice; permafrost
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA305466; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA305466

This report documents the results of a study comparing forecasted aircraft icing conditions to pilot reports (PIREPs) of aircraft icing. Of the three operational forecast algorithms validated (AF Global Weather Central's RAOB routine, icing routines in the Navy's NODDS, and TESS software), RAOB had the overall best comparison to the PIREPs and 67 percent of the type forecasts and 42 percent of the intensity forecasts agreeing with the reported icing. These percentages increase to 73 percent (type) and 53 (intensity) when considering only PIREPs from jet aircraft. The greatest degree of error was associated with forecasts of clear and mixed icing and icing of moderate intensity.