Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site
Within the last year, Soviet yield data have been acquired by DARPA for over 40 underground nuclear explosions at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site between 1964 and 1990. These yields are compared to previous estimates by other authors, based on observed seismic magnitudes and magnitude-log yield relation...
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ftdtic:ADA261725 2023-05-15T17:47:13+02:00 Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site Fisk, Mark D. Gray, Henry L. Alewine, III, Ralph W. McCartor, Gary D. MISSION RESEARCH CORP SANTA BARBARA CA 1992-09-30 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA261725 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA261725 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA261725 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DTIC AND NTIS Seismology Nuclear Weapons *YIELD(NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS) *NUCLEAR EXPLOSION TESTING *SEISMOLOGY *SEISMIC DATA USSR NETWORKS YIELD CALIBRATION SEISMIC ARRAYS SEISMOLOGICAL STATIONS AMPLITUDE EPICENTERS SEISMIC WAVES EXPLOSION EFFECTS UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS EXPLOSIONS NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS NORSAR(NORWEGIAN SEISMIC ARRAY) MULTIVARIATE CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS NOVAYA ZEMLYA TEST SITE GRAFENBERG TTBT(THRESHOLD TREATY BAN TEST) PE62714E WUPL9A10DAAC Text 1992 ftdtic 2016-02-22T10:35:13Z Within the last year, Soviet yield data have been acquired by DARPA for over 40 underground nuclear explosions at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site between 1964 and 1990. These yields are compared to previous estimates by other authors, based on observed seismic magnitudes and magnitude-log yield relations transported from other test sites. Several discrepancies in the yield data are noted. Seismic magnitude data, based on NORSAR Lg and P coda, Grafenberg Lg, and a world-wide m sub b, have been published by Ringdal and Fyen (1991) for 18 of these events. A similar set of Soviet network magnitudes have been published by Israelsson (1992). Using these data, estimates of the multivariate calibration parameters of the magnitude-log yield relations are computed. An outlier test is applied to the residuals to the lines of best fit. One of the two smallest events is identified as an outlier for every multivariate magnitude combination. A classical confidence interval is presented to estimate future yields, based on estimates of the unknown multivariate calibration parameters. A test of TTBT compliance and a definition of the F-number, based on the confidence interval, are also provided. F-number estimates are obtained for various magnitude combinations by jackknifing. The reliability of the results is discussed, in light of the fact that the data are tightly clustered for 16 of the 18 events. Prepared in cooperation with Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX. Text Novaya Zemlya Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
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Open Polar |
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Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Seismology Nuclear Weapons *YIELD(NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS) *NUCLEAR EXPLOSION TESTING *SEISMOLOGY *SEISMIC DATA USSR NETWORKS YIELD CALIBRATION SEISMIC ARRAYS SEISMOLOGICAL STATIONS AMPLITUDE EPICENTERS SEISMIC WAVES EXPLOSION EFFECTS UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS EXPLOSIONS NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS NORSAR(NORWEGIAN SEISMIC ARRAY) MULTIVARIATE CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS NOVAYA ZEMLYA TEST SITE GRAFENBERG TTBT(THRESHOLD TREATY BAN TEST) PE62714E WUPL9A10DAAC |
spellingShingle |
Seismology Nuclear Weapons *YIELD(NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS) *NUCLEAR EXPLOSION TESTING *SEISMOLOGY *SEISMIC DATA USSR NETWORKS YIELD CALIBRATION SEISMIC ARRAYS SEISMOLOGICAL STATIONS AMPLITUDE EPICENTERS SEISMIC WAVES EXPLOSION EFFECTS UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS EXPLOSIONS NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS NORSAR(NORWEGIAN SEISMIC ARRAY) MULTIVARIATE CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS NOVAYA ZEMLYA TEST SITE GRAFENBERG TTBT(THRESHOLD TREATY BAN TEST) PE62714E WUPL9A10DAAC Fisk, Mark D. Gray, Henry L. Alewine, III, Ralph W. McCartor, Gary D. Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site |
topic_facet |
Seismology Nuclear Weapons *YIELD(NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS) *NUCLEAR EXPLOSION TESTING *SEISMOLOGY *SEISMIC DATA USSR NETWORKS YIELD CALIBRATION SEISMIC ARRAYS SEISMOLOGICAL STATIONS AMPLITUDE EPICENTERS SEISMIC WAVES EXPLOSION EFFECTS UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS EXPLOSIONS NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS NORSAR(NORWEGIAN SEISMIC ARRAY) MULTIVARIATE CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS NOVAYA ZEMLYA TEST SITE GRAFENBERG TTBT(THRESHOLD TREATY BAN TEST) PE62714E WUPL9A10DAAC |
description |
Within the last year, Soviet yield data have been acquired by DARPA for over 40 underground nuclear explosions at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site between 1964 and 1990. These yields are compared to previous estimates by other authors, based on observed seismic magnitudes and magnitude-log yield relations transported from other test sites. Several discrepancies in the yield data are noted. Seismic magnitude data, based on NORSAR Lg and P coda, Grafenberg Lg, and a world-wide m sub b, have been published by Ringdal and Fyen (1991) for 18 of these events. A similar set of Soviet network magnitudes have been published by Israelsson (1992). Using these data, estimates of the multivariate calibration parameters of the magnitude-log yield relations are computed. An outlier test is applied to the residuals to the lines of best fit. One of the two smallest events is identified as an outlier for every multivariate magnitude combination. A classical confidence interval is presented to estimate future yields, based on estimates of the unknown multivariate calibration parameters. A test of TTBT compliance and a definition of the F-number, based on the confidence interval, are also provided. F-number estimates are obtained for various magnitude combinations by jackknifing. The reliability of the results is discussed, in light of the fact that the data are tightly clustered for 16 of the 18 events. Prepared in cooperation with Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX. |
author2 |
MISSION RESEARCH CORP SANTA BARBARA CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Fisk, Mark D. Gray, Henry L. Alewine, III, Ralph W. McCartor, Gary D. |
author_facet |
Fisk, Mark D. Gray, Henry L. Alewine, III, Ralph W. McCartor, Gary D. |
author_sort |
Fisk, Mark D. |
title |
Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site |
title_short |
Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site |
title_full |
Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site |
title_fullStr |
Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multivariate Seismic Calibration for the Novaya Zemlya Test Site |
title_sort |
multivariate seismic calibration for the novaya zemlya test site |
publishDate |
1992 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA261725 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA261725 |
genre |
Novaya Zemlya |
genre_facet |
Novaya Zemlya |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA261725 |
op_rights |
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. |
_version_ |
1766151582690312192 |