Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach
Based on a 27 year data record from the COADS and SEIC data sets, a statistical analysis of ice concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, U and V wind components, and sea level pressure anomaly data was conducted for five locations in the ice-covered waters of the North Atlantic...
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ftdtic:ADA205022 2023-05-15T15:12:27+02:00 Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach Garcia, Katharine S. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 1988-12 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA205022 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA205022 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA205022 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DTIC AND NTIS Meteorology Snow Ice and Permafrost *MARINE METEOROLOGY *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGICAL DATA *SEA ICE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AUTOCORRELATION ACCURACY THESES REGRESSION ANALYSIS BOUNDARIES MARINE ATMOSPHERES OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA SEASONAL VARIATIONS WINTER ICE CLIMATE STORMS CONCENTRATION(COMPOSITION) WIND VELOCITY SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL PROCESSES BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EQUATIONS CORRELATION TECHNIQUES SURFACE TEMPERATURE BARENTS SEA HIGH LATITUDES SEA WATER NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SUMMER LAND AREAS GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION ARCTIC REGIONS GREENLAND SEA LEAD TIME PERIODIC VARIATIONS WIND PARAMETERS OCEAN SURFACE OCEANOGRAPHY DATA BASES ANOMALIES *ICE FORECASTING SEIC(SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) COADS(COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) ICE CONCENTRATION ANOMALIES ICE COVER PERSISTENCE COADS (COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN- ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) SEIC (SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) ICE FORECASTING ICE CONCENTRATION SEA ICE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ARTIC CLIMATE MARINE METEOROLOGY Text 1988 ftdtic 2016-02-23T06:32:52Z Based on a 27 year data record from the COADS and SEIC data sets, a statistical analysis of ice concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, U and V wind components, and sea level pressure anomaly data was conducted for five locations in the ice-covered waters of the North Atlantic. Spectral densities and autocorrelations of the time series for each variable were calculated to establish a measure of persistence and periodicity. Regression equations were formulated based on the above data sets to forecast both the winter and summer ice concentration anomalies for each location. The differing effects of land and ice boundaries, currents, storm passages and wind velocity parameters retained by each of the regression equations. In addition to ice concentration anomalies at various lags, the inclusion of meteorological and oceanographic parameters was shown to increase the total explained model variance, which should improve the accuracy of an ice concentration anomaly forecast at lead times of at one season over a forecast based on ice concentration anomaly persistence alone. Text Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Greenland Sea Ice North Atlantic permafrost Sea ice ice covered waters Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database Arctic Barents Sea Greenland |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology Snow Ice and Permafrost *MARINE METEOROLOGY *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGICAL DATA *SEA ICE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AUTOCORRELATION ACCURACY THESES REGRESSION ANALYSIS BOUNDARIES MARINE ATMOSPHERES OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA SEASONAL VARIATIONS WINTER ICE CLIMATE STORMS CONCENTRATION(COMPOSITION) WIND VELOCITY SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL PROCESSES BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EQUATIONS CORRELATION TECHNIQUES SURFACE TEMPERATURE BARENTS SEA HIGH LATITUDES SEA WATER NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SUMMER LAND AREAS GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION ARCTIC REGIONS GREENLAND SEA LEAD TIME PERIODIC VARIATIONS WIND PARAMETERS OCEAN SURFACE OCEANOGRAPHY DATA BASES ANOMALIES *ICE FORECASTING SEIC(SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) COADS(COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) ICE CONCENTRATION ANOMALIES ICE COVER PERSISTENCE COADS (COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN- ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) SEIC (SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) ICE FORECASTING ICE CONCENTRATION SEA ICE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ARTIC CLIMATE MARINE METEOROLOGY |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology Snow Ice and Permafrost *MARINE METEOROLOGY *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGICAL DATA *SEA ICE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AUTOCORRELATION ACCURACY THESES REGRESSION ANALYSIS BOUNDARIES MARINE ATMOSPHERES OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA SEASONAL VARIATIONS WINTER ICE CLIMATE STORMS CONCENTRATION(COMPOSITION) WIND VELOCITY SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL PROCESSES BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EQUATIONS CORRELATION TECHNIQUES SURFACE TEMPERATURE BARENTS SEA HIGH LATITUDES SEA WATER NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SUMMER LAND AREAS GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION ARCTIC REGIONS GREENLAND SEA LEAD TIME PERIODIC VARIATIONS WIND PARAMETERS OCEAN SURFACE OCEANOGRAPHY DATA BASES ANOMALIES *ICE FORECASTING SEIC(SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) COADS(COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) ICE CONCENTRATION ANOMALIES ICE COVER PERSISTENCE COADS (COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN- ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) SEIC (SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) ICE FORECASTING ICE CONCENTRATION SEA ICE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ARTIC CLIMATE MARINE METEOROLOGY Garcia, Katharine S. Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach |
topic_facet |
Meteorology Snow Ice and Permafrost *MARINE METEOROLOGY *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS *MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION *METEOROLOGICAL DATA *SEA ICE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AUTOCORRELATION ACCURACY THESES REGRESSION ANALYSIS BOUNDARIES MARINE ATMOSPHERES OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA SEASONAL VARIATIONS WINTER ICE CLIMATE STORMS CONCENTRATION(COMPOSITION) WIND VELOCITY SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL PROCESSES BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EQUATIONS CORRELATION TECHNIQUES SURFACE TEMPERATURE BARENTS SEA HIGH LATITUDES SEA WATER NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SUMMER LAND AREAS GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION ARCTIC REGIONS GREENLAND SEA LEAD TIME PERIODIC VARIATIONS WIND PARAMETERS OCEAN SURFACE OCEANOGRAPHY DATA BASES ANOMALIES *ICE FORECASTING SEIC(SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) COADS(COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) ICE CONCENTRATION ANOMALIES ICE COVER PERSISTENCE COADS (COMPREHENSIVE OCEAN- ATMOSPHERE DATA SET) SEIC (SEA ICE CONCENTRATION) ICE FORECASTING ICE CONCENTRATION SEA ICE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ARTIC CLIMATE MARINE METEOROLOGY |
description |
Based on a 27 year data record from the COADS and SEIC data sets, a statistical analysis of ice concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, U and V wind components, and sea level pressure anomaly data was conducted for five locations in the ice-covered waters of the North Atlantic. Spectral densities and autocorrelations of the time series for each variable were calculated to establish a measure of persistence and periodicity. Regression equations were formulated based on the above data sets to forecast both the winter and summer ice concentration anomalies for each location. The differing effects of land and ice boundaries, currents, storm passages and wind velocity parameters retained by each of the regression equations. In addition to ice concentration anomalies at various lags, the inclusion of meteorological and oceanographic parameters was shown to increase the total explained model variance, which should improve the accuracy of an ice concentration anomaly forecast at lead times of at one season over a forecast based on ice concentration anomaly persistence alone. |
author2 |
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Garcia, Katharine S. |
author_facet |
Garcia, Katharine S. |
author_sort |
Garcia, Katharine S. |
title |
Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach |
title_short |
Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach |
title_full |
Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of Ice Concentration Anomalies in the High Latitudes of the North Atlantic Using a Statistical Approach |
title_sort |
predictability of ice concentration anomalies in the high latitudes of the north atlantic using a statistical approach |
publishDate |
1988 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA205022 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA205022 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Greenland Sea Ice North Atlantic permafrost Sea ice ice covered waters |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Greenland Sea Ice North Atlantic permafrost Sea ice ice covered waters |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA205022 |
op_rights |
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. |
_version_ |
1766343126241247232 |