Research on Ocean Forecasting and Nonlinear Wave Propagation and Numerical Hydrodynamics in the Ocean.

• Other Authors: BERKELEY RESEARCH ASSOCIATES INC CA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1988
• Subjects: Physical and Dynamic Oceanography; Statistics and Probability; Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *SEA ICE; ACCURACY; MARINE CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER PROGRAMS; CONCENTRATION(COMPOSITION); DAMPING; DRIFT; FORECASTING; HEAT FLUX; HYDRODYNAMICS; ICE; MEAN; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NONLINEAR PROPAGATION ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL ANALYSIS; OCEAN CURRENTS; OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS; OCEAN MODELS; OCEAN SURFACE; OCEANS; POLAR REGIONS; PREDICTIONS; REGIONS; SEA WATER; STATISTICAL PROCESSES; SURFACE PROPERTIES; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; THERMODYNAMICS; THICKNESS; WAVE PROPAGATION; MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION; VARIATIONS; Upper ocean; TOPS(Thermodynamic Ocean Prediction System); Hibler ice model.; Ice; permafrost; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA193363; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA193363

During this reporting period we carried out research which would improve the accuracy of the NPE (Nonlinear Progressive-Wave Equation), TOPS (Thermodynamic Ocean Prediction System) and Hibler Sea Ice models and would reduce the discrepancies between the models and actual experimental observations. To simulate a greater variety of ocean environments, the NPE computer code was modified to include a damping region. The inclusion of these enhancements has provided a means to better understand real oceans. We also examined the ability of statistical techniques to forecast upper ocean deviations from climatology on 1 to 7 day time scales. Sea surface temperature deviations in the 2.5 to 62.5 meter region in depth were predicted using available information on surface conditions and 'recent' deviations at the same location. We used a hydrodynamic/thermodynamic sea ice model to predict sea ice concentration, thickness and drift. The operational model, the Polar Ice Prediction System is based on the Hibler (1979) model only with the addition of thermodynamics similar to that used by Semtner(1976). It is driven by atmospheric forcing from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model, as well as monthly mean climatological ocean currents and oceanic heat fluxes. Keywords: Ocean models.