Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data.
A statistical analysis of 27 years of monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ice concentration data was conducted for 17 locations along the annual mean position of the marginal ice zone spanning the North Atlantic. Anomalies (differences from monthly means) of both variables were observ...
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ftdtic:ADA186621 2023-05-15T15:39:10+02:00 Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. Fleming, Gordon H NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 1987-09 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA186621 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA186621 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA186621 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DTIC AND NTIS Snow Ice and Permafrost Physical and Dynamic Oceanography *SEA ICE AUTOCORRELATION CROSS CORRELATION OCEAN CURRENTS DATA BASES FORECASTING HIGH LATITUDES HOMOGENEITY ICE FORMATION ICELAND LONG RANGE(TIME) LOW STRENGTH LOW TEMPERATURE MODELS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH(DIRECTION) OCEAN SURFACE PREDICTIONS SCALE SEA WATER SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STEADY STATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERMODYNAMICS VARIABLES WATER ANOMALIES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION WATER MASSES STRAITS BARENTS SEA THESES Marginal ice zones Ice concentration Davis strait Ice cover Ocean circulation Text 1987 ftdtic 2016-02-21T21:33:33Z A statistical analysis of 27 years of monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ice concentration data was conducted for 17 locations along the annual mean position of the marginal ice zone spanning the North Atlantic. Anomalies (differences from monthly means) of both variables were observed to have spatial scales of 100s to 1000s of kms, temporal scales of 6 months to several years, and a strong regional dependence. Sea surface temperature autocorrelation values were in general higher than ice concentration autocorrelation values. Cross-correlations between the two variables were found to be highly significant in some regions and poor in others. The various correlation features appeared in plausible with respect to understood physical processes in each region. For example, the data for the northern Barents and Iceland Seas showed strong cross-correlations at lags extending to over nine months. The steady-state cold water temperatures and relatively weak currents in these regions enhanced persistence of both SST and ice concentration, allowing them to interact. By contrast, the Davis Strait area, a region of strong confluent currents of different temperatures and limited ice persistence, showed weak cross-correlation values. Statistical analyses of large, homogeneous data sets as conducted in this study appear to be superior to current thermodynamic models in their potential for long-range forecasts of ice concentration. Text Barents Sea Davis Strait Ice Iceland North Atlantic permafrost Sea ice Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database Barents Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Snow Ice and Permafrost Physical and Dynamic Oceanography *SEA ICE AUTOCORRELATION CROSS CORRELATION OCEAN CURRENTS DATA BASES FORECASTING HIGH LATITUDES HOMOGENEITY ICE FORMATION ICELAND LONG RANGE(TIME) LOW STRENGTH LOW TEMPERATURE MODELS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH(DIRECTION) OCEAN SURFACE PREDICTIONS SCALE SEA WATER SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STEADY STATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERMODYNAMICS VARIABLES WATER ANOMALIES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION WATER MASSES STRAITS BARENTS SEA THESES Marginal ice zones Ice concentration Davis strait Ice cover Ocean circulation |
spellingShingle |
Snow Ice and Permafrost Physical and Dynamic Oceanography *SEA ICE AUTOCORRELATION CROSS CORRELATION OCEAN CURRENTS DATA BASES FORECASTING HIGH LATITUDES HOMOGENEITY ICE FORMATION ICELAND LONG RANGE(TIME) LOW STRENGTH LOW TEMPERATURE MODELS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH(DIRECTION) OCEAN SURFACE PREDICTIONS SCALE SEA WATER SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STEADY STATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERMODYNAMICS VARIABLES WATER ANOMALIES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION WATER MASSES STRAITS BARENTS SEA THESES Marginal ice zones Ice concentration Davis strait Ice cover Ocean circulation Fleming, Gordon H Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. |
topic_facet |
Snow Ice and Permafrost Physical and Dynamic Oceanography *SEA ICE AUTOCORRELATION CROSS CORRELATION OCEAN CURRENTS DATA BASES FORECASTING HIGH LATITUDES HOMOGENEITY ICE FORMATION ICELAND LONG RANGE(TIME) LOW STRENGTH LOW TEMPERATURE MODELS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH(DIRECTION) OCEAN SURFACE PREDICTIONS SCALE SEA WATER SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STEADY STATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERMODYNAMICS VARIABLES WATER ANOMALIES GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION WATER MASSES STRAITS BARENTS SEA THESES Marginal ice zones Ice concentration Davis strait Ice cover Ocean circulation |
description |
A statistical analysis of 27 years of monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ice concentration data was conducted for 17 locations along the annual mean position of the marginal ice zone spanning the North Atlantic. Anomalies (differences from monthly means) of both variables were observed to have spatial scales of 100s to 1000s of kms, temporal scales of 6 months to several years, and a strong regional dependence. Sea surface temperature autocorrelation values were in general higher than ice concentration autocorrelation values. Cross-correlations between the two variables were found to be highly significant in some regions and poor in others. The various correlation features appeared in plausible with respect to understood physical processes in each region. For example, the data for the northern Barents and Iceland Seas showed strong cross-correlations at lags extending to over nine months. The steady-state cold water temperatures and relatively weak currents in these regions enhanced persistence of both SST and ice concentration, allowing them to interact. By contrast, the Davis Strait area, a region of strong confluent currents of different temperatures and limited ice persistence, showed weak cross-correlation values. Statistical analyses of large, homogeneous data sets as conducted in this study appear to be superior to current thermodynamic models in their potential for long-range forecasts of ice concentration. |
author2 |
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Fleming, Gordon H |
author_facet |
Fleming, Gordon H |
author_sort |
Fleming, Gordon H |
title |
Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. |
title_short |
Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. |
title_full |
Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of Ice Concentration in the High-Latitude North Atlantic from Statistical Analysis of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and Ice Concentration Data. |
title_sort |
predictability of ice concentration in the high-latitude north atlantic from statistical analysis of sst (sea surface temperature) and ice concentration data. |
publishDate |
1987 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA186621 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA186621 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Davis Strait Ice Iceland North Atlantic permafrost Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Davis Strait Ice Iceland North Atlantic permafrost Sea ice |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA186621 |
op_rights |
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
_version_ |
1766370632804597760 |