An Evaluation of the Polar Ice Prediction System.

• Main Authors: Tucker,W. B. , III, Hibler,W. D. , III
• Other Authors: COLD REGIONS RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING LAB HANOVER NH
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1987
• Subjects: Meteorology; Snow; Ice and Permafrost; *AIR WATER INTERACTIONS; *SEA ICE; TEST AND EVALUATION; POLAR REGIONS; THICKNESS; ENVIRONMENTS; PREDICTIONS; MODELS; NAVY; EDGES; GRIDS; NUMERICAL ANALYSIS; FORECASTING; ICE FORMATION; DISPLAY SYSTEMS; DRIFT; ICE; GRAPHICS; BARENTS SEA; OCEAN MODELS; OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS; NORWEGIAN SEA; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GREENLAND SEA; BUOYS; OCEANOGRAPHY; CHUKCHI SEA; ARCTIC OCEAN; ICE REPORTING; *Ice Forecasting; PIPS(Polar Ice Prediction System); Ice Drift; PE63704N; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea; Chukchi Sea; Greenland; Norwegian Sea; Arctic Basin; Chukchi; Greenland Sea; Ice; permafrost; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA178522; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA178522

The Polar Ice Prediction System (PIP) is a numerical ice forecasting system that has been implemented at the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanographic Center (FNOC). The PIPS model is run as a 24-hr timestep out to 144 hours (6 days) on a 47 x 25 grid at a resolution of 127 Km. This grid covers the entire Arctic basin as well as the Greenland and Norwegian Seas. Graphic forecast products are transmitted via the Naval Environmental Display Systems to the Naval Polar Oceanographic Center (NPOC) for guidance in preparation of weekly ice forecasts. Primary products are ice drift, thickness, concentration and divergence. A two-phased evaluation of PIPS was conducted. The first extended from 15 Nov 1985 until 15 March 1986 while the second phase ran from 15 June until 15 Oct 1986. As well as covering periods of ice growth and decay, the model was initialized differently for the two phases. During Phase I, the model self-generated its initial concentration field from analysis atmospheric forcing fields. For Phase II, the digitized ice analysis prepared by NPOC was used to update the model each week. Primary products evaluated were ice drift, concentration and the location of the ice edge. Evaluation revealed that PIPS tends to predict too little ice in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas while predicting excessive ice in the Greenland and Barents Seas. Ice drifts were compared to the drifts were compared to the drifts of buoys located on ice floes in the Arctic basin.