Development of Decision Analysis Specifically for Arctic Offshore Drilling Islands.

• Main Author: Balk,David M
• Other Authors: TEXAS A AND M UNIV COLLEGE STATION COASTAL AND OCEAN ENGINEERING DIV
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1985
• Subjects: Mining Engineering; Civil Engineering; *ISLANDS; *OFFSHORE DRILLING; COMPUTER PROGRAMS; OPTIMIZATION; THEORY; PROBABILITY; COSTS; FORTRAN; SOLUTIONS(GENERAL); ICE; DECISION THEORY; ARCTIC REGIONS; Arctic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA162299; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA162299

The theory and development of decision analysis for alternatives with risks is discussed. A procedure for decision analysis is then developed, by taking advantage of utility and probability theory, and applying this process to Arctic offshore drilling islands. A computer program was written as part of an example that compares three man made islands in the Arctic. Consequences of the three alternatives were based on factors such as ice loading, initial costs, transit time, along with six other attributes. The preferences of the design team for nine consequences, along with the likelihood of any single consequence occurring, was evaluated to obtain the optimum solution. Keywords: Caisson-retained islands, FORTRAN.