An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean.
This report describes the application and evaluation of four primary statistical models in the forecasting of horizontal marine visibility over selected physically homogeneous areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. The main focus of this study is to propose an optimal model output statistics (MOS) appro...
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ftdtic:ADA151955 2023-05-15T17:28:42+02:00 An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. Diunizio,M NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 1984-09 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA151955 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA151955 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA151955 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DTIC AND NTIS Atmospheric Physics Statistics and Probability *MATHEMATICAL MODELS *MARINE ATMOSPHERES *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OUTPUT PROBABILITY FORECASTING MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION VISIBILITY LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LINEAR ALGEBRAIC EQUATIONS NOGAPS(Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) Text 1984 ftdtic 2016-02-21T00:01:03Z This report describes the application and evaluation of four primary statistical models in the forecasting of horizontal marine visibility over selected physically homogeneous areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. The main focus of this study is to propose an optimal model output statistics (MOS) approach to operationally forecast visibility at the 00-hour model initialization time and the 24-hour and 48-hour model forecast projections. The technique utilized involves the manipulation of observed visibility and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model output parameters. The models employ the statistical methodologies of maximum conditional probability, natural regression and minimum probable error linear regression threshold techniques. Additionally, an evaluation of the 1983 predictive arrays/equations using 1984 NOGAPS data fields and a maximum-likelihood-of-detection threshold model were accomplished. Results show that two statistical approaches, namely a maximum conditional probability strategy utilizing linear regression equation predictors and the minimum probable error threshold models, produce the best results achieved in this study. Text North Atlantic Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
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Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
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English |
topic |
Atmospheric Physics Statistics and Probability *MATHEMATICAL MODELS *MARINE ATMOSPHERES *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OUTPUT PROBABILITY FORECASTING MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION VISIBILITY LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LINEAR ALGEBRAIC EQUATIONS NOGAPS(Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Physics Statistics and Probability *MATHEMATICAL MODELS *MARINE ATMOSPHERES *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OUTPUT PROBABILITY FORECASTING MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION VISIBILITY LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LINEAR ALGEBRAIC EQUATIONS NOGAPS(Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) Diunizio,M An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Physics Statistics and Probability *MATHEMATICAL MODELS *MARINE ATMOSPHERES *STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OUTPUT PROBABILITY FORECASTING MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION VISIBILITY LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN LINEAR ALGEBRAIC EQUATIONS NOGAPS(Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) |
description |
This report describes the application and evaluation of four primary statistical models in the forecasting of horizontal marine visibility over selected physically homogeneous areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. The main focus of this study is to propose an optimal model output statistics (MOS) approach to operationally forecast visibility at the 00-hour model initialization time and the 24-hour and 48-hour model forecast projections. The technique utilized involves the manipulation of observed visibility and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model output parameters. The models employ the statistical methodologies of maximum conditional probability, natural regression and minimum probable error linear regression threshold techniques. Additionally, an evaluation of the 1983 predictive arrays/equations using 1984 NOGAPS data fields and a maximum-likelihood-of-detection threshold model were accomplished. Results show that two statistical approaches, namely a maximum conditional probability strategy utilizing linear regression equation predictors and the minimum probable error threshold models, produce the best results achieved in this study. |
author2 |
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Diunizio,M |
author_facet |
Diunizio,M |
author_sort |
Diunizio,M |
title |
An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
title_short |
An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
title_full |
An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
title_fullStr |
An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
title_full_unstemmed |
An Evaluation of Discretized Conditional Probability and Linear Regression Threshold Techniques in Model Output Statistics Forcasting of Visibility Over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
title_sort |
evaluation of discretized conditional probability and linear regression threshold techniques in model output statistics forcasting of visibility over the north atlantic ocean. |
publishDate |
1984 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA151955 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA151955 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA151955 |
op_rights |
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
_version_ |
1766121555876642816 |