Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.

Climate prediction models based on multivariate analyses of cyclone frequencies are constructed from historical data (1885-1960) and evaluated for forecast skill on independent data (1960-1983). Cyclone frequencies are predicted for six-month duration seasons at 87 locations over eastern North Ameri...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Hayden,B P
Other Authors: VIRGINIA UNIV CHARLOTTESVILLE DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1984
Subjects:
Meteorology
Statistics and Probability
*MATHEMATICAL MODELS
*MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
*WEATHER FORECASTING
*CYCLONES
FREQUENCY
TIME INTERVALS
SKILLS
PREDICTIONS
MODELS
GRAPHS
TEST METHODS
HISTORY
CLIMATE
SCORING
SEASONS
WUNR389170
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA143576
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA143576
id ftdtic:ADA143576
record_format openpolar
spelling ftdtic:ADA143576 2023-05-15T17:31:45+02:00 Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency. Hayden,B P VIRGINIA UNIV CHARLOTTESVILLE DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES 1984-07 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA143576 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA143576 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA143576 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DTIC AND NTIS Meteorology Statistics and Probability *MATHEMATICAL MODELS *MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS *WEATHER FORECASTING *CYCLONES FREQUENCY TIME INTERVALS SKILLS PREDICTIONS MODELS GRAPHS TEST METHODS HISTORY CLIMATE SCORING SEASONS WUNR389170 Text 1984 ftdtic 2016-02-20T23:00:17Z Climate prediction models based on multivariate analyses of cyclone frequencies are constructed from historical data (1885-1960) and evaluated for forecast skill on independent data (1960-1983). Cyclone frequencies are predicted for six-month duration seasons at 87 locations over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic from 27.5 deg to 55 deg. Three types of principal components models are constructed and tested. Model I uses unrotated principal component axes; Model II uses rigid rotation of the component axes; and, Model III uses oblique rotations of the component axes. Forecast skill averages 75% correct for 2 category measure of forecasts. Text North Atlantic Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database
institution Open Polar
collection Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database
op_collection_id ftdtic
language English
topic Meteorology
Statistics and Probability
*MATHEMATICAL MODELS
*MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
*WEATHER FORECASTING
*CYCLONES
FREQUENCY
TIME INTERVALS
SKILLS
PREDICTIONS
MODELS
GRAPHS
TEST METHODS
HISTORY
CLIMATE
SCORING
SEASONS
WUNR389170
spellingShingle Meteorology
Statistics and Probability
*MATHEMATICAL MODELS
*MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
*WEATHER FORECASTING
*CYCLONES
FREQUENCY
TIME INTERVALS
SKILLS
PREDICTIONS
MODELS
GRAPHS
TEST METHODS
HISTORY
CLIMATE
SCORING
SEASONS
WUNR389170
Hayden,B P
Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
topic_facet Meteorology
Statistics and Probability
*MATHEMATICAL MODELS
*MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
*WEATHER FORECASTING
*CYCLONES
FREQUENCY
TIME INTERVALS
SKILLS
PREDICTIONS
MODELS
GRAPHS
TEST METHODS
HISTORY
CLIMATE
SCORING
SEASONS
WUNR389170
description Climate prediction models based on multivariate analyses of cyclone frequencies are constructed from historical data (1885-1960) and evaluated for forecast skill on independent data (1960-1983). Cyclone frequencies are predicted for six-month duration seasons at 87 locations over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic from 27.5 deg to 55 deg. Three types of principal components models are constructed and tested. Model I uses unrotated principal component axes; Model II uses rigid rotation of the component axes; and, Model III uses oblique rotations of the component axes. Forecast skill averages 75% correct for 2 category measure of forecasts.
author2 VIRGINIA UNIV CHARLOTTESVILLE DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
format Text
author Hayden,B P
author_facet Hayden,B P
author_sort Hayden,B P
title Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
title_short Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
title_full Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
title_fullStr Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
title_full_unstemmed Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
title_sort climate prediction. part 1. cyclone frequency.
publishDate 1984
url http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA143576
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA143576
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_source DTIC AND NTIS
op_relation http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA143576
op_rights APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
_version_ 1766129479997980672

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